Poll Before Election Day: See How Prop 50 Is Faring

Ahead of Tuesday's Nov. 4 Statewide Special Election in California, polling indicates strong support for Proposition 50, which asks voters to authorize temporary changes to the state's congressional district maps.

Led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Democrats are leading the Yes on 50 charge, which, if passed, would mean the adoption of new congressional maps that could flip as many as five U.S. House seats in the Golden State from Republican to Democratic control.

A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Thursday found that 60 percent of likely voters say they will vote yes and just 38 percent say they will vote no.

That is an increase in support of Prop. 50, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll last month that found 56 percent of likely voters said they would support the proposition, compared to 43 percent who said they would oppose it.

Both polls showed that a high number of California voters are invested in Prop. 50. According to the Associated Press, residents have already cast 6,433,997 advance ballots.

Supporters see California's Yes on 50 campaign as a counter to President Donald Trump's effort to pressure Republican-led states to redraw their congressional maps to gain GOP seats in the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterm election.

Texas quickly heeded the president's call and, in August, adopted a new map that could flip five Democratic-leaning U.S. House seats.

The Republican-controlled legislatures of both Missouri and North Carolina have adopted new maps, and other states are expected to follow as gerrymandering on both sides of the aisle heats up.

Redistricting is usually performed only once every decade after the release of U.S. Census data.

Though Trump instigated the current tit-for-tat gerrymandering, the redrawing of congressional maps is not his only strategy to garner GOP control during next year's midterms.

Trump's multipronged approach also seeks to purge voter rolls, take aim at mail-in voting and voting machines, and order the Justice Department to investigate a primary fundraising tool for Democrats, ActBlue. In April, Trump signed a presidential memorandum ordering the U.S. Attorney General to investigate potential unlawful "straw donor" and foreign contributions through the online platform.

Money is surely a factor in the Prop. 50 campaign.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) conceded that Prop. 50 opposition was "outnumbered two-to-one" when it came to spending in these last days of the campaign.

"We are outgunned on the fundraising side," he told CalMatters.

Another strategy is on the table to counter Prop. 50, but for now it appears dead. Rep. Darrell Issa (R), whose district includes a swath of Riverside and San Diego counties, filed a lawsuit challenging Prop. 50, alleging it is unconstitutional and "an unprecedented interstate assault on representative democracy."

The lawsuit, joined by Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson (R), was filed Oct. 29 in the Northern District of Texas but was quickly dismissed by a federal judge.

As lawsuits are filed, Trump is calling into question the validity of upcoming elections. He is renewing his claims that the 2020 contest he lost to Joe Biden was rigged, and has called for his administration?s Department of Justice to deploy election monitors to five California counties ? Fresno, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange and Riverside ? to oversee Tuesday's election.

The administration has framed the federal monitoring as a way to "ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal law."

California Democrats are critical of the move. Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta have rolled out a plan to send state monitors to oversee the feds.

The move by the Trump administration aims "to intimidate, to create a false pretext, to go to federal court to somehow say this election was stolen, that it was conducted illegally," Newsom contends.

Whatever the outcome of the Nov. 4 election in California, the nation appears to be in the midst of nuclear redistricting wars.

MORE ELECTION COVERAGE:

• Newsom Tells Prop 50 Donors To Stop Giving Him Money: Report
• Could CA's Prop 50 Flip The U.S. House? 7 Things To Know
• Newsom Says He Is Considering A 2028 Presidential Bid
• Feds To Monitor 5 CA Polling Sites Ahead Of Nov. 4 Election
• A Rich Scientist Is Determined To Sink Prop 50: Report