4th Coronavirus Wave Unlikely, But Vaccines Important: Expert

CONNECTICUT — A full-blown fourth coronavirus wave in Connecticut and the country in general is unlikely, according to former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb.

“I don’t think we’re going to have a fourth wave of infection that’s going to sweep the national nationally,” Gottlieb said during Gov. Ned Lamont’s Monday news conference “I think that what we’re at risk for is some regionalized epidemics or outbreaks like you’ve seen in Michigan.”

Some states like Michigan and Massachusetts are seeing growing cases among youths age 10 to 19, Gottlieb said. That’s likely because of schools reopening and children getting together with their friends largely for the first time in a while.

Gottlieb predicted cases and hospitalizations across the country will likely see a significant decline after a few weeks due to increased vaccination rates and more outdoor activities thanks to warmer weather, he said.

The one potential factor that could upend progress are new variants re-infecting people who already had COVID-19 or are more resistant to vaccine-induced immunity, he said.
Current data seems to suggest that likely won’t happen, but more information needs to be collected at the national level.

Infections likely saw an uptick due to people getting out and socializing more than they have recently, Gottlieb said. The country and Connecticut could have benefited from another few weeks of reduced social activity, he said.

“We re-engaged in activity a little too early,” he said. “March was a month that we needed to continue to do what we were doing in February, and we started to go out more, and we started to socialize more.”

Gottlieb didn’t disagree with Lamont’s decision to broadly reopen businesses to full capacity.

“Policymakers end up passing policy that has to conform to the aspirations of the people and the aspirations of the governed,” he said. “You can’t be that far out of step with what people want, you’ve got to try to fashion policy that conforms to a degree where the public mood is.”

It’s better if people listen to some guidance such as the continued use of masks than no guidance at all, according to Gottlieb.

“I think that if we just tell the American people you know it’s not time to do anything yet, you’ve got to continue to stay indoors and do all the things that you were doing back in January now, that’s not going to work," he said.