Hurricane Experts Adjust 2017 Atlantic Forecast

SARASOTA, FL — Like it or not, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is now under way and will last for months. Just in time for the kickoff, the Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University has released updated predictions for the season, which runs through Nov. 30. While the school’s climatology team initially predicted a slightly below-average season with 11 named storms, Thursday’s updated forecast calls for a season that’s a tad more active.

“We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity,” the updated forecast report released June 1 said. “We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Watch: 'Above-Normal' Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected

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According to Colorado State University, the 2017 season may give rise to 14 named storms, including the pre-season Tropical Storm Arlene, which popped up and fizzled out in April. CSU’s team anticipates six hurricanes will form, up from the four it predicted in April. Of those four hurricanes, two are expected to be major hurricanes.

The CSU team also issued probabilities for at least one major hurricane, category 3-5, making landfall in the United States as follows:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 55 percent probability (average for the last century is 52 percent)
• U.S. East Coast, including Florida’s peninsula – 33 percent (average for the last century is 31 percent)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas – 32 percent (average for the last century is 30 percent)

The team also broke down the probability of individual states feeling the impacts of a hurricane. Some of those included in the breakdown are as follows:

• Florida – 54 percent for a hurricane; 22 percent for a major hurricane
• Texas – 35 percent for a hurricane; 13 percent for a major hurricane
• Louisiana – 32 percent for a hurricane; 13 percent for a major hurricane
• Georgia – 12 percent for a hurricane; 1 percent for a major hurricane
• New Jersey – 1 percent for a hurricane; less than 1 percent for a major hurricane

Colorado State’s predictions differ from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast for the season. NOAA’s forecasters anticipate 2017 will produce an above-average number of named storms. The government organization expects 11 to 17 tropical storms to develop over the next few months. That number includes the preseason Arlene. Of the 11 to 17 tropical storms, about five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes, Ben Friedman, NOAA’s acting administrator said. Two to four major hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph are anticipated as well.

“There is a potential for a lot of Atlantic storm activity this year,” Friedman said.

NOAA’s forecasters say there is a 45 percent chance that this season’s activity levels will be above normal with a 35 percent chance for a near-normal season. Forecasters say there’s only a 20 percent chance for the upcoming season to produce a below-normal number of storms.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

An average hurricane season produces about 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes. Three of those storms generally become major hurricanes.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear generally combine to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Since forecasters expect El Nino conditions to be weak or non-existent, more hurricane activity is likely this year.

Friedman stressed the need for people to get ready. “We cannot stop hurricanes, but we can prepare for them.”

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. Folks in the Tampa Bay area can also check out this related story: Hurricane Season 2017: What Tampa Bay Area Residents Need To Know.

To read CSU’s full report, visit the university’s website.

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center