School Enrollment Drops In Maryland; Pandemic Likely Cause

MARYLAND— A profound nationwide drop in public school enrollment could have lasting effects in Maryland, some of which could extend far beyond the pandemic.

A new analysis conducted by the Associated Press and Chalkbeat, a nonprofit news organization covering education, shows student enrollment last year dropped in nearly every U.S. state, including Maryland.

Hawaii was the lone exception, where enrollment increased by a meager 0.2 percent.

The pandemic is the likely culprit behind the sharp declines, according to the AP analysis.

When schools moved online during the pandemic, many parents opted to send their kids elsewhere. While some pulled children out of public schools to home-school them, others enrolled their kids in private schools since many continued to offer in-person instruction.

Now, some school officials are worried those students may never return, the AP reported. If they don’t, it’s a shift that could not only affect district funding but also change the demographics of America’s schools.

In Maryland, total student enrollment in grades K-12 dropped from 909,414 students in 2019-20 to 882,538 in 2020-21, marking a 2.96 percent decrease.

Nationwide, enrollment in preschool to 12th grade dropped by 2.6 percent across 41 states last fall, according to the analysis done by the AP and Chalkbeat.

Across the United States, the decline was steepest among white students, whose enrollment fell more than 4 percent.

In Maryland, the biggest decrease was also among white students, with enrollment numbers dropping 6.06 percent.

Here’s a look at how enrollment changed among demographic groups in Maryland:

• Black students: -1.85 percent
• Hispanic students: -0.61 percent
• Asian American students: -0.8 percent
• White students: -6.06 percent

By The Numbers

At the start of the 2020–2021 school year, districts reported losing thousand of students.

Baltimore County Public Schools lost almost 4,000 students, according to WBAL, which said the neighboring Howard County Public School System was down almost 2,000 students.

Those were not the only districts where families were making alternate plans.

Montgomery County Public Schools enrollment was down by more than 3,300 students, WTOP reported.

Anne Arundel County's enrollment reportedly decreased by 1,475 students.

Enrollment in Harford County Public Schools was down by about 1,o00, according to The Aegis.

Early signs show enrollment may not fully recover, according to the AP’s report. A sustained drop in enrollment could mean two things.

First, schools that lose students will eventually lose funding for those students.

Generally, public schools are funded on a per-student basis through federal, state and local sources. Nearly half of those funds come from local property taxes. Fewer students could mean an increase in property taxes to make up for the decrease in per-student funding.

A dip in enrollment is also likely to hit the wallet of poorer districts harder, Bruce Baker, an education professor at Rutgers University, told National Public Radio.

"If you've got a district where 70, 80 percent of the money is coming in state aid based on some enrollment count number, which would tend to be a poorer district serving a higher share of low-income and minority students," Baker said, "those districts stand to lose a lot if the state decides to follow through with using this year's enrollment counts as a basis for funding in the future."

Kindergarten Enrollment Drops

An October 2020 report by NPR showed enrollment drops are especially noticeable in kindergarten and pre-K — the average drop was about 16 percent. Another analysis of 33 states showed that roughly 30 percent of all K-12 enrollment declines were attributable to kindergarten.

The AP and Chalkbeat’s report also corroborated this.

In Maryland, kindergarten enrollment dropped by 10.29 percent.

Nationwide, no state avoided a decrease in kindergarten enrollment. Some of the largest drops were reported in other states including Hawaii, where kindergarten enrollment dropped by more than 15 percent, and Oregon, where enrollment dropped more than 14.5 percent.

Parents are instead opting to send their young children to charter schools or day care centers.

Both prekindergarten and kindergarten enrollment were down "significantly," Baltimore City Public Schools reported to Afro, which noted enrollment had begun to decline in the city's schools before the coronavirus pandemic.

As more kids go without the academic and other benefits of kindergarten, experts say, it could potentially widen educational inequities

“It all has to do with the quality of that care setting,” Elizabeth Votruba-Drzal, a University of Pittsburgh professor who studies child care and early education, told Chalkbeat. “Affluent parents can buy their way into high-quality settings, regardless of the constraints that they face, whereas families that have fewer resources have fewer choices and face very tough decisions.”

— By Megan VerHelst and Elizabeth Janney