Colder Winter, Fewer Flakes in Maryland 2016 Forecast

Pack away the shovels and snowblower but keep the parkas and scarves handy, the Mid-Atlantic area seems likely to have a colder than average winter with less snow, say a couple of forecasts.

A longterm weather forecast for winter 2016 released last month by the experts at the National Weather Service says the weather phenomenon known as La Nina is likely to play a big factor. It favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S.

What that means for Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic states is a drier winter but with cooler temperatures, says WUSA meteorologist Topper Shutt. The region will see fewer coastal storms, thus less snowfall than the average of 15 inches of snow in Washington, DC, about 22 inches in its northern and western suburbs and eight inches in the eastern and southern suburbs.

"Overall this season, southern Maryland will get 10 inches or less, 10 to 15 inches in the immediate metro area and 15 to 25 inches in our far northern and western suburbs," Shutt predicts. "In the mountains, near the Pennsylvania border, 25 to 35 inches or more are expected. However, it can take only one big storm to upset the apple cart so to speak and skew the numbers. This winter could also see one ice storm with cold, arctic air in place when a storm tracks to the west of the Metro area bringing the dreaded wintry mix."

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AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok agrees with the estimate, predicting snow accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow switches to rain and sleet.

Overall, it's predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last month put the region in a fuzzy "either/or" sort of category, saying there are equal chances of more precipitation or less precipitation for Maryland, Virginia and the Northeast.

Private forecast services, including the Atmospheric Environmental Research, also say the Mid-Atlantic region should bundle up for a cold winter. Its scientists use a model based on Arctic Oscillation, in which large areas of “blocking” high pressure develop at high latitudes, which forces cold air from the Arctic south into much of the United States.

“The signals are strong right now for a cold winter in the East," meteorologist Judah Cohen, told The Washington Post.

His winter forecast model shows plunging winter temperatures chilling much of the country, from the Dakotas all the way down to Georgia, and encompassing Maryland and Virginia.

And, the Capital Weather Gang says forecaster Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics issued his prediction for a cold and snowy winter in the East four months ago. His forecast calls for snowfall 120-150 percent of average in Washington, D.C.

Last year, the Mid-Atlantic region suffered through an intensifying El Niño weather pattern that brought three feet of snow to much of Maryland and Virginia in a January 2016 storm, closing roads for days, schools for a week and trapping residents indoors.

“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

>>>Click here for the whole NOAA winter forecast<<<
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