Maryland Winter Weather Forecast Update: Not Normal

The weather may feel more like April than January in the coming weeks. But don't expect it to last. Forecasters have released an updated winter weather forecast for the rest of January and early February in Maryland, and it may not be what you'd normally expect.

The weather is expected to be unseasonably warm over the next couple weeks as mild Pacific air travels to the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will prevent cold air — the so-called "Polar Vortex" — from traveling from Canada to Maryland.

"The main branch of the jet stream will retreat to near the border of Canada and the U.S.," which should keep the region generally warm, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

The overall pattern first appears to be mild for much of the nation during the latter part of the month, unless the polar vortex comes into play. If the polar vortex remains strong, then it will keep the arctic air locked up in the Arctic and more places in the lower 48 states may trend warmer rather than colder late in the month.

"We believe the eastern part of the U.S. will trend colder and stormier again toward the end of the month, but the question is how much," says AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

The National Weather Service and The Weather Channel predict a wet weekend coming up for the Baltimore-Washington, D.C., area, making for soggy presidential inauguration events. While temperatures will reach mild highs in the upper 40s to low 50s — the average high at this time of the year is in the low 40s — expect rain Friday and Friday night, and again Saturday night and most of Sunday.

That could mean "snowy conditions" in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and other areas of the Northeast by the end of January and early February.

"January may end with near to below-average temperatures and a return of snowy conditions around the Great Lakes and part of the Northeast," AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Jack Boston said in an AccuWeather release.

A strong jet stream will combine with a strong low-pressure system, a piece of Winter Storm Kori and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring a greater threat of severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday in the South, according to The Weather Channel.

The most recent long-range prediction by the National Weather Service, made in mid-December, said Maryland and Virginia had a 30 to 40 percent chance of above normal temperatures through late March, and normal precipitation.

Here is what the National Weather Service and AccuWeather are saying:

• The upcoming pattern for the remainder of the month will have some people in the South shedding winter coats, while others in the northern tier will be "changing up their outerwear on a daily basis," according to AccuWeather.
• We'll see temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s into next week. These conditions will lead to an extended thaw over the mid-Atlantic.

In many parts of the nation, early January lived up to its wintry reputation, according to AccuWeather.

At one point last week, snow was on the ground and freezing temperatures existed in every state except Florida, thanks to a snowstorm that swept from the Northwest to the Southern states and then to the coastal Northeast.

So far the Baltimore and D.C. regions have seen little snow, and a couple of rounds of ice, on recent weekends, nothing close to last winter's 3-foot blizzard.

During the middle 10 days of January, highs in Chicago will generally range from the 20s to the 40s. In New York City, highs most days will be in the 30s and 40s with an exception here and there. For both cities, it will neither be bitterly cold nor warm for very long. Normal highs are near freezing in Chicago and in the upper 30s for New York City.

Winter forecasts released in October for the Mid-Atlantic area by the experts at the National Weather Service says the weather phenomenon known as La Nina should bring a drier, warmer winter in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S.

What that means for Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic states is a drier winter but with cooler temperatures, says WUSA meteorologist Topper Shutt. The region will see fewer coastal storms, thus less snowfall than the average of 15 inches of snow in Washington, DC, about 22 inches in its northern and western suburbs and eight inches in the eastern and southern suburbs.

AccuWeather long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok agrees with the estimate, predicting snow accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow switches to rain and sleet.

Overall, it's predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year.

Patch file photo, graphics from AccuWeather