Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast? Pft, Meteorologist Says

METRO DETROIT, MI — Last week, Patch shared The Old Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast for 2016-2017. It calls for above average temperatures, below normal precipitation in the Metro Detroit region, while other areas in the Great Lakes region, specifically Illinois and New York, are expected to get higher-than-normal precipitation.

The editors pat themselves on the back, pointing out the reliability of The Old Farmer's Almanac predictions.

“Our famous predictions (traditionally 80 percent accurate) are made 18 months in advance, and meant to help you make more informed decisions for long-term planning,” the publication says.

“We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.”

Over at WDIV-TV, meteorologist Paul Gross writes that he’s “ready to scream.”

“That’s right,” Gross wrote.”The Almanac’s weather ‘forecasters’ use a theory developed by a guy 224 years ago. In fact, they go on to say that the ‘formula’ is locked in a black box in their offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. Really … I can’t make this stuff up.”

Gross points out that The Old Farmer’s Almanac folks don’t take into consideration modern day methodology that has allowed meteorologists to predict El Niño and La Niña weather patterns, data from satellites, guidance from computer models and other information about oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns.

“Don’t you think that, if I could forecast in August your specific weather for Thanksgiving week, that I’d be doing it by now?” he wrote. “Don’t you think that if I could tell you today that we’ll have a big travel-snarling Christmas week snowstorm, that I would?”

Despite its claim of 80 percent accuracy, The Old Farmer’s Almanac got it half wrong last winter with a prediction of below average temperatures and snow.

Gross and others said the strong El Niño pattern would mean much milder temperatures and below-normal snow. They were right.

On Patch’s story last week, user “bigbillofwyandotte” also lamented the accuracy of The Old Farmer’s Almanac's predictions.

“I sure hope they are right this time,” he wrote. “They blew it totally two years ago when that so-called Polar Vortex clobbered us.”

Hope may be as good as it gets this year. Gross says he’s waiting until early fall until more data is available to make any predictions

» Read the full WDIV-TV post here.

Image: Jim Sorbie via Flickr / Creative Commons