Dean Phillips Projected Winner Over Incumbent Erik Paulsen

MAPLE GROVE, MN — In a stunning result, west metro Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen is projected to lose his seat in the U.S. House to Democrat challenger Dean Phillips. Paulsen has represented Minnesota's Third District since 2008.

Phillips, a first-time candidate, is projected to win handily.

With 228 of 248 precincts reporting, Paulsen has received 142,283 votes, while Phillips has received 181,130, according to unofficial tallies.

Polls have closed across Minnesota. Stay with Patch Tuesday night as vote totals pour in.

Democrats need to gain 23 seats to take control of the U.S. House, and they’re counting on flipping Minnesota’s Third District to do it. Rep. Erik Paulsen’s district has been controlled by Republicans since the 60s, but analysts and pollsters believe he’s more vulnerable than ever.

The Third District is unique in that voters overwhelmingly favored Hillary Clinton in 2016, but reelected Paulsen in that same election. Since then, Paulsen — who was first elected in 2008 — has come under attack from constituents who say he no longer represents their interests.

Laurie Wolfe has lived in Maple Grove for 13 years. She voted for Paulsen up until 2016.

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“It seemed as though we had an incumbent congressman who was moderate,” Wolfe told Patch. “I never bothered to look at his voting record.”

Paulsen has voted in line with President Donald Trump’s position 97.8 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight. That’s a red flag for Wolfe, who now says Paulsen’s image as a moderate Republican is not in line with the way he votes in Congress.

Paulsen voted to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, as well as the GOP tax bill.

“I wasn’t really involved in politics before 2016,” Wolfe said. She believes there’s been a turning point in the district since Trump’s election.

“We have a candidate in Dean Phillips who has really gotten people in the district excited,” says Wolfe. Phillips — a businessman and first-time candidate — could benefit from the anti-Trump sentiment in the district.

• 2018 Midterm Election Results: Vote A Referendum On 'Trump's GOP'

Paulsen himself has been more critical of Trump than other Minnesota Republicans, such as Rep. Jason Lewis.

In July, Paulsen called Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin “embarrassing.”

"An American President taking the side of a Russian dictator over American intelligence agencies is dangerous,” Paulsen tweeted. “It's clear they meddled in our elections, and they should be held accountable for it."

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And Paulsen has faced tough opponents before. In his last election, he faced former State Sen. Terri Bonoff, who positioned herself as the real moderate candidate. Paulsen won handily.

But there are signs momentum could swing against him Tuesday. The Cook Political Report says the race is currently leaning Democratic.

Regardless of the outcome, the district and Minnesota overall could see record-breaking voter turnout Tuesday.

Wolfe says she’s never seen so many people excited about an election.

“There’s yard signs everywhere in Maple Grove, for both sides.”

More than 535,000 Minnesotans voted before Tuesday

Early voting in Minnesota this year began Sept. 21. As of Monday morning, at least 539,806 absentee ballots had been accepted, almost keeping pace with the 2016 presidential election.

The rate of absentee ballot requests this year increased 129 percent over 2014, which was the last statewide non-presidential election.

“Early voter participation in Minnesota is at record levels,’” Secretary of State Steve Simon said in a statement Monday.

“With less than 36 hours remaining in the 2018 election, Minnesotans are on-pace to hold our #1 title for voting participation.”

Crucial votes in the suburbs

Several races for U.S. House in the Twin Cities metro area could come down to a tiny margin of voters in the suburbs. With the midterms today, it's worth taking a look at the political landscape of the metro.

Read on: Most Liberal, And Most Conservative Twin Cities Suburbs: List

Minnesota Election Day Weather

You may have to get through rain and snow showers on your way to the polls Tuesday. Election Day will feature plenty of precipitation in the Twin Cities.

Minnesota Weather: Election Day 2018 Forecast

Haven't registered to vote yet? Don't worry. Minnesota residents eligible to vote can register on Election Day at their polling location. You will need to show proof of residence before you vote.

If your voter registration is current and active, you do not need to bring an I.D. to the polls.

Where do I vote? You can enter your address into Minnesota's Polling Place Finder to find out where you vote

Interested in Minnesota politics? Subscribe to Patch's daily newsletters and alerts for the latest political news.

Photo: Committee Chairman Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN) speaks during a hearing before the Joint Economic Committee March 7, 2018 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The Joint Economic Committee held a hearing to focus on 'The Economic Report of the President.' (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)