NJ COVID Wave To Peak In Spring, Gov. Murphy Says: What To Expect

NEW JERSEY — Even as New Jersey's vaccinations expand, coronavirus cases are not expected to decline just yet, Gov. Phil Murphy said. And the pattern of the outbreak could impact the state's decisions on reopenings and mask orders.

Murphy says New Jersey can expect to see COVID-19 cases peak between late April and mid-May. He also said New Jersey's public mask mandate will most likely be in effect through Memorial Day to try to keep cases down.

During a news conference this week, Murphy pointed to the New Jersey Department of Health's predictive pandemic model outlining the best-case, moderate-case and worst-case scenarios.

In both the best-case and moderate-case models, the number of cases, hospitalizations, ICU and ventilators would peak on April 18, and then numbers would decline consistently over the summer, said Murphy.

In the high-case scenario, a peak is expected between May 12 and May 21. That would likely be the situation if New Jersey doesn't do enough to protect itself, such as wearing masks and limiting the capacity of indoor buildings.

However, unlike with the best and moderate cases, "the curve would stall out at a higher range, have a second uptick in mid-June, and a slower decline throughout the rest of the summer," Murphy said.

"The most troubling thing about the high-case scenario isn't necessarily the peak … but the slow decline on the other side," Murphy said.

Murphy said he is most worried about the worst-case scenario and the state's "ability as a society to stay the course throughout that longer period of time."

This is why he is keeping the mask mandates and extending the vaccine eligibility to those over 16 years old as of April 19. Read More: COVID Vaccines Will Expand To NJ Residents 16 And Older

"It is relatively safe to say we are likely looking at a reality of somewhere between best and moderate, but we all have to redouble our efforts to keep the high-case model from becoming a reality," Murphy said.

As of Wednesday, roughly 1.9 million residents have been fully vaccinated in New Jersey. This brings the state to 40 percent of its goal to have 4.7 million residents fully vaccinated by the end of June.

Murphy also said he's not yet ready to take the steps California, Texas and others have taken and announce a grand, large-scale reopening. "Whatever we do is going to be incremental and gradual," he said.

Department of Health Medical Adviser Eddy Bresnitz said reopening decisions are based on a "sliding scale that can go up or down."

"I think what we have not talked about recently, anyway, is the recognition that the coronavirus has a seasonality to it. We saw that last summer," he said. "After our peak in April and many parts of the country, we were at a very nice, low level. That was because of many things, but one is because people went outdoor.

"The governor's mentioned this several times about getting outdoors, which will reduce the risk of people infecting each other, those who aren't protected."

Bresnitz also said there are many more factors to consider, such as the variants and the degree of vaccination of people in the country.

"I think that we are going to continue to have to do these mitigation strategies, and I worry about the fall," he said. "I know we're talking about the spring, but I'm already looking ahead six months from now, so what's going to happen when we come back into the fall?

"If we have more people vaccinated, if we have children vaccinated or at least adolescents by the fall, that'll make a big difference as well," he said. "Again, as I said before, time will tell. I said that in terms of durability, and time will tell in terms of when we can reopen fully or partially."

For more vaccine information, visit our New Jersey COVID-19 Vaccination Hub.

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