Diesel Will Still be on Top in 20 Years

For the foreseeable future, diesel will remain the go-to technology fueling the country’s truck fleets. But looking ahead, experts say most trucks on the roadway will probably be powered by a combination of fuels and technology, such as by hydrogen and fuel cells, or battery-electric, or even renewable natural gas or diesel fuel. Right now, though, more than 90 percent of commercial vehicles are currently being powered by diesel technology.

Predictions: 20 Years From Now

Diesel will still be dominating the industry in 2040, say analysts, at least in regards to Class 8 truck fleets. Check out these predictions:

1. Heavy-duty zero-emissions trucks are expected to overpower diesel in terms of sales by 2040. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, only one manufacturer of a zero-emissions Class 7 and 8 truck are available today, with others remaining in pre-production.
2. IHS Markit points out that 80 percent of commercial truck sales in this country will run on diesel by 2040.
3. Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates only 19 percent of the heavy-duty commercial truck fleet in this country will run on electricity by 2040, translating to 81 percent of heavy-duty trucks running mainly on diesel and natural gas.
4. Diesel will comprise 65 percent of heavy-duty truck sales and 86 percent of the whole fleet by 2040, according to The Fuels Institute.

One thing that’s for sure is that these forecasts will depend a lot on how well new technology in the commercial marketplace fares, as well as the price and availability of diesel and alternative fuels. Still, we’re making progress in the way we reduce emissions, as well as how many greenhouse gases we emit and how we consume fuel.

Advantages for the Climate and Fuel Economy

Diesel trucks can operate on advanced renewable biofuels that are able to lower greenhouse gas emissions through the use of biodiesel or 100 percent renewable diesel fuel blends.

• When renewable diesel fuel is used, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 80 percent or more.
• Many fleets are already using these fuels, which is resulting in oil companies announcing their planned used of petroleum refineries to generate new supplies of renewable diesel fuel.

• Commercial vehicles have to adhere to strict fuel-economy and greenhouse-gas emissions standards.
• More fuel-efficient trucks will do away with one billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2027.

More efficient diesel trucks are making big strides in terms of fuel savings and climate benefits. Fleet Advantage says a new Class 8 tractor has a 15 percent better fuel economy as compared with a 2016 model. This reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Truck, engine and component makers are working diligently to further reduce emissions from diesel trucks to bring them as close to zero as possible. The EPA’s Cleaner Trucks Initiative will create new goals to do even more to reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx).

In the end, even with all the advances expected to happen, diesel technology will continue to dominate the industry as it strives to get closer to zero emissions.

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