Spring COVID Spike Probable In NJ, New Modeling Shows

NEW JERSEY —New Department of Health models project that the number of new coronavirus cases in New Jersey will hover around 5,000 for most of April as the number of vaccinations continue to increase across the Garden State.

In the worst case scenario, though, the state could be looking at 8,000 new cases daily in the spring, Gov. Phil Murphy said during a news conference on Wednesday.

Both numbers are much smaller than the models projected for the Garden State at this same time last year, shortly after the onset of the pandemic. In that case, New Jersey didn't approach the numbers state health officials feared they might.

"These projections are based on a year's worth of data, but they change day-by-day," Murphy said. "These are projections, not a certainty."

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On Wednesday, 5,902 new cases were reported statewide, bringing New Jersey's total to 908,816 since the pandemic began. State health officials also announced 44 new deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities to 21,993.

Realistically, Murphy believes the state will hit a peak of 5,445 new cases on April 18. This is under a moderate-case scenario, which projects hospitalizations to hit a high of 2,669 the same day, which would be about 300 more than New Jersey is currently facing.

New cases wouldn't drop to below 3,000 until June, and hospitalizations wouldn't fall to under 1,000 until August, Murphy said.

But in a high-case scenario in which vaccines only prove 65 percent effective against the new variants, and more people let their guard down earlier, hospitalizations could reach 3,500 between mid-May and mid-June.

"That's not a break point number for our hospitals, but let's remember there are human beings working in these hospitals, treating these patients," Murphy said. "Doctors, nurses and support staffs that have been at this for well over a year, and their stress and exhaustion cannot be overlooked or overstated."

No best-case scenario was presented, but Murphy said it could be presented on Monday.

"I'm less concerned about the number of cases than I am about the length of the calendar," Murphy said. "I'm more concerned about how elongated this becomes if it's under this model."

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At this time last year, state health officials projected a peak of 86,000 on April 19, 2020, with a worst-case scenario of 509,000 by May. Read more here: Gov. Murphy: NJ Coronavirus Case Peak Anywhere From 86K To 509K

A model presented for the winter projected a peak between 6,300 and 9,100, but the Garden State avoided hitting those peaks in each case.

Saying he knows the rate at which the state has reopened has caused enormous pain and caused some restaurants and other businesses to shutter, Murphy said he hopes to see no further tightening of restrictions, no matter which scenario plays itself out.

“We have been in two respects the most cautious and methodical state on reopening,” Murphy said. “The steps we have taken of late are deliberate in their direction. I think we’re the only state in America that has not lurched forward and then had to take a step back. I hope we can continue to make methodical incremental steps to reopen.”

He also pointed out that New Jersey didn’t come close to the projections made in the spring or the winter, and he said it was thanks to social distancing, wearing masks and following other guidelines set forth by the CDC.

"If the past has shown us anything, it's that you all by the millions are up to the task," Murphy said. "Whether it was last spring or in the winter, you doubled down by doing what was needed to do to slow the spread. In both instances, our actual numbers did not meet those projections. We have crushed the curve twice, let's do it for a third time, and hopefully for a final time."