18 NJ Counties 'High' COVID Risk As Cases Fall: New State Report

NEW JERSEY — A new report says 18 New Jersey counties still have a "high" risk of coronavirus transmission even as the state has made progress in recent weeks and numbers have fallen.

Three counties in particular have shown significant progress in the state Department of Health's newly released weekly report on the status of the outbreak (see the details below).

The DOH's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says New Jersey's statewide activity remains "high." Gov. Phil Murphy has said the report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey, particularly with schools.

The report may have played a role in Murphy's decision to reopen in "incremental" steps as opposed to following in the footsteps of Connecticut and California, which have announced dates to fully open the doors to each state's economy.

The Department of Human Services on Friday released updated reopening requirements for congregate day programs for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

Under the guidance, Division of Developmental Disabilities-funded day programs may now reopen with capacity limits tied to the COVID-19 Activity Report's transmission-risk levels.

Operating capacity under updated requirements are as follows:

• 25 percent in very high (red) areas - previously not permitted to operate.
• 50 percent in high (orange) - previously not permitted to operate.
• 50 percent in moderate (yellow) – same as previous.
• Full capacity in low (green) – previously permitted to operate at 50 percent capacity.

While the state report has positive news, it's also sobering: Eighteen New Jersey counties have a new daily case rate that's at the high level, which is still considered too high to reopen more of the state. Those same counties are at the "orange," or high, risk level of COVID-19 virus transmission.

Those counties are:

• Atlantic
• Bergen
• Burlington
• Cape May
• Camden
• Cumberland
• Essex
• Gloucester
• Hudson
• Middlesex
• Monmouth
• Morris
• Ocean
• Passaic
• Salem
• Sussex
• Union
• Warren

Three counties are at the "yellow," or moderate, risk level:

• Hunterdon
• Mercer
• Somerset

During an Assembly Budget Committee hearing on Thursday, State Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli pointed to statistics that now say New Jersey has the highest seven-day death rate in the nation. Read more here: NJ ‘Struggling’ In CDC COVID Hot Zone: Highest Death Rate In U.S.

If the state didn't take the lockdown steps it needed to take, she said, as many as 1 out of every 250 New Jersey residents could have died. Now, the number is 1 out of every 500.

Persichilli also said that with vaccinations and warmer weather coming, she hopes "we can return to something we can enjoy."

That sentiment has been echoed by Murphy, who reiterated during a news conference on Wednesday that the schools will be fully “back in business” come September.

“The numbers have gotten somewhat better over the past week to 10 days,” Murphy said. “They're still not where we need them to be, but they are showing a trend that is beginning to build in the right direction. And because of that, we're meeting regularly. We had another discussion earlier today and at the end of the day yesterday on what steps we can take. And that's what we're going to continue to do.”

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics:

The biggest drops in case rates were in Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties; and in Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Union counties, where the rates dropped by about 5 percentage points in each region.

Indeed, the new daily case rates were below 3,000 for five consecutive days this week, the first time since November New Jersey has had that streak (see daily case totals below).

The percent positivity rate dropped in all but two regions. It rose in Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties; and in Hunterdon, Mercer and Somerset counties.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

• Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
• COVID-19-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
• Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
• The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending April 17:

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending April 10th:

The state's COVID-19 activity timeline:

After falling to the "moderate" level, the DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity has been "high" for eight consecutive weeks.

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for most of the past year. It was "high" in late in April and May 2020, and "very high" in late March and early April 2020, before falling to the low and moderate levels during the summer and fall.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:

Daily case totals:

• April 22: 2,895
• April 21: 2,961
• April 20: 2,393
• April 19: 1,935
• April 18: 2,765
• April 17: 3,474
• April 16: 3,791
• April 15: 3,411
• April 14: 2,828
• April 13: 3,466
• April 12: 2,079
• April 11: 2,897
• April 10: 2,993
• April 9: 3,523
• April 8: 3,758
• April 7: 3,578
• April 6: 3,382
• April 5: 2,471
• April 4: 3,284
• April 3: 3,525
• April 2: 3,972
• April 1: 4,699
• March 31: 4,586
• March 30: 4,371
• March 29: 3,174
• March 28: 3,927
• March 27: 3,968
• March 26: 4,339
• March 25: 3,469
• March 24: 3,227
• March 23: 3,429
• March 22: 2,608
• March 21: 2,599
• March 20: 3,940
• March 19: 3,738
• March 18: 3,830
• March 17: 3,590
• March 16: 3,141
• March 15: 2,468
• March 14: 2,800
• March 13: 3,264
• March 12: 3,544
• March 11: 3,208
• March 10: 3,047
• March 9: 3,434
• March 8: 2,201
• March 7: 2,077
• March 6: 3,015
• March 5: 3,347
• March 4: 2,605
• March 3: 3,857
• March 2: 2,820
• March 1: 2,668
• February 28: 2,171
• February 27: 3,641
• February 26: 3,149
• February 25: 3,079
• February 24: 2,661
• February 23: 2,516
• February 22: 2,165
• February 21: 1,814
• February 20: 2,671
• February 19: 2,679
• February 18: 2,746
• February 17: 3,786
• February 16: 3,144
• February 15: 1,222
• February 14: 1,798
• February 13: 3,411
• February 12: 3,285
• February 11: 3,012
• February 10: 3,740
• February 9: 3,164
• February 8: 2,218
• February 7: 3,938
• February 6: 3,783
• February 5: 3,723
• February 4: 2,503
• February 3: 2,021
• February 2: 2,811
• February 1: 3,114
• January 31: 3,823
• January 30: 4,626
• January 29: 5,023
• January 28: 3,962
• January 27: 3,950
• January 26: 4,117
• January 25: 3,694
• January 24: 4,613
• January 23: 6,115
• January 22: 3,694
• January 21: 4,095
• January 20: 4,582
• January 19: 3,761
• January 18: 3,511
• January 17: 4,686
• January 16: 5,246
• January 15: 5,490
• January 14: 5,967
• January 13: 6,922
• January 12: 4,219
• January 11: 5,042
• January 10: 5,032
• January 9: 6,435
• January 8: 5,791
• January 7: 6,314
• January 6: 5,028
• January 5: 5,400
• January 4: 2,292
• January 3: 3,676
• January 2: 5,528
• January 1: 5,541
• December 31: 5,107
• December 30: 4,664
• December 29: 3,675
• December 28: 2,745
• December 27: 2,329
• December 26: 4,000
• December 25: 5,095
• December 24: 4,871
• December 23: 4,919
• December 22: 4,686
• December 21: 3,186
• December 20: 5,184
• December 19: 4,240
• December 18: 3,975
• December 17: 4,319
• December 16: 5,803
• December 15: 4,111
• December 14: 4,805
• December 13: 4,170
• December 12: 6,247
• December 11: 3,821
• December 10: 5,370
• December 9: 4.665
• December 8: 5,820
• December 7: 3,573
• December 6: 6,046
• December 5: 5,367
• December 4: 5,673
• December 3: 4,913
• December 2: 4,350
• December 1: 4,661
• November 30: 3,199
• November 29: 3,851
• November 28: 3,924
• November 27: 4,100
• November 26: 4,565
• November 25: 4,073
• November 24: 4,383
• November 23: 3,592
• November 22: 3,998
• November 21: 4,679
• November 20: 3,635
• November 19: 4,320
• November 18: 4,063
• November 17: 4,060
• November 16: 2,232
• November 15: 4,540
• November 14: 4,395
• November 13: 3,399
• November 12: 3,517
• November 11: 3,078
• November 10: 3,877
• November 9: 2,075
• November 8: 2,043
• November 7: 3,207
• November 6: 2,199
• November 5: 2,104
• November 4: 2,472
• November 3: 1,832
• November 2: 1,379
• November 1: 1,751