NJ At 'High Risk' Of COVID-19 Hospital Overload, New Data Shows

NEW JERSEY - With new daily cases peaking 6,000 for the first time ever, New Jersey is at a high risk of hospital overload, according to the newest data shared by Covid Act Now Thursday.

"New Jersey is either actively experiencing an outbreak or is at extreme risk. COVID cases are exponentially growing and New Jersey’s COVID preparedness is significantly below international standards," the nonprofit said.

Covid Act Now, a research group that draws data from The New York Times, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and state and county dashboards, says the Garden State has reached the critical stage in two metrics: daily new cases per population and ICU headroom.

Mitigation steps must be taken immediately in order to treat patients in intensive care, according to Covid Act now, which lists its full methodology and sources guide on the group's website.

New Jersey has about 833 ICU beds and, based on best available data, the group of data experts estimates that 36 percent (300) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients.

Of the 533 ICU beds remaining, 630 are needed for COVID patients, or 100 percent of available beds. This suggests hospitals cannot absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity.

"Aggressive action urgently needed," the nonprofit said.

Indeed, another group, Resolve to Save Lives, a pandemic think tank, recommends that hospitals maintain enough ICU capacity to double the number of COVID patients hospitalized.

Cases have been on the rise recently in New Jersey, but hospitalizations have not approached the levels they hit in the spring, when more than 8,000 people were being treated.

Still, Covid Act Now says the rise in cases should provide cause for worry that New Jersey's hospitalizations could exceed the levels hit during the spring.

Over the last week, New Jersey has averaged 5,045 new confirmed cases per day (56.8 for every 100,000 residents), the report showed. If this trend continued for the next year, this would translate to approximately 1,800,000 cases and an estimated 8,900,000 infections, or 100 percent of the population.

The group's data reflects what other models, researchers and agencies have been saying about the coronavirus crisis in New Jersey.

New Jersey could see upwards of 12,000 cases of the coronavirus by early next year if it doesn't get control of the spread of the virus, and hospitalization rates could spike to their highest levels since the spring, Gov. Phil Murphy said on Wednesday.

While he's been hesitant to impose lockdowns like he did in the spring, Murphy said newly developed predictive models cite worst-case scenarios that could force New Jersey to take such actions. The governor said on Tuesday that such actions could be economically devastating, but necessary. Read more: Gov. Murphy Now Says NJ Daily COVID Cases Could Double To 12K

Another complicating factor in hospital headroom is the flu season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which always recommends a flu shot annually, also contends flu shots are this year are critical.

"Routine vaccination prevents illnesses that lead to unnecessary medical visits, hospitalizations and further strain the healthcare system. For the 2020-2021 influenza season, influenza vaccination will be paramount to reduce the impact of respiratory illnesses attributed to influenza in the population and resulting burdens on the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic," the CDC warns on its website.

The messaging of many politicians, including Murphy, is to hang on a little bit longer as the world prepares for a vaccine rollout.

"If we can over-perform as we did in the spring and truly recommit to doing the right things, we can push these numbers down even further," Murphy said. Read more: Gov. Murphy: NJ Recovery May Be 'Years' As COVID Vaccines Arrive

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