NOAA Releases Newest Winter Forecast For New Jersey

New Jersey could be in for a slightly warmer, mild winter with average amounts of precipitation this year, according to the latest forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Thanks in part to an ongoing La Niña weather pattern, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — is predicting a slightly warmer winter with an average amount of precipitation for our state.

New Jersey's winter temperatures are in an average range of 16 to 43 degrees, and the NOAA forecast says there's a 50 to 60 percent chance of the temperatures being at the warmer end of that range for the 2020-2021 winter months. That would follow a 2019-2020 winter where December through March recorded temperatures as much as 7 degrees above average, according to the New Jersey state climatologist's office.

Precipitation should be near average, according to the forecast, but NOAA did not make predictions on the amount of snowfall. If temperatures are mild, chances are most of New Jersey's precipitation will be rain. That would follow a 2019-2020 winter that the state climatologists at Rutgers labeled a dud for snowfall. The average snowfall last winter was 4.7 inches across the state, nearly 20 inches below normal for snowfall.

New Jersey, along with other Mid-Atlantic states, finds itself with no problems with drought —unlike many other areas of the country. More than 45 percent of the continental United States is experiencing drought, including large areas of the western part of the country, and some in the Northeast.

As we head into winter, NOAA’s forecast for the United States calls for warmer, drier conditions across many of the Southern states, and cooler, wetter conditions in the North.

The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend from the Southwest, across the Gulf states and into the Southeast. The forecast calls for a lesser chance for warmer temperatures in the southern parts of the West Coast, and above-average temperatures are also favored for Hawaii and western and northern Alaska.

Below-normal temperatures are expected in southern Alaska and from the northern Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. Remaining regions could see equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Wetter-than-average conditions are seen as most likely across the northern tier of the United States, extending from the Pacific Northwest, across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, and into the Ohio Valley. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are predicted in the Southwest, across Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and in Florida.

NOAA also plans to closely monitor persistent drought conditions through the winter months. With a La Niña climate pattern in place, southern parts of the country may experience expanded and intensifying drought in the months ahead.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update is to be released Nov. 19.