Hurricane Jose Forecast Cone Now Includes Long Island

The likelihood of impacts to Long Island from Hurricane Jose continues to rise as the storm's so-called "cone of uncertainty" now includes the island for the first time.

As of 5 a.m. Friday, Jose was churning about 360 miles northeast of the Bahamas. Jose is classified as a tropical storm at the moment with winds of 70 mph, but it's "showing signs of becoming better organized" and will likely regain hurricane status later Friday, the National Hurricane Center says.

A couple of days ago, Jose was viewed as a minimal threat to Long Island and expected to head well out to sea, but forecast models have continued to shift the storm's track closer to the East Coast.

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"Jose will pose an increasing threat for high surf, dune erosion, localized washovers and dangerous rip currents along the ocean beachfront this weekend through early next week," a hazardous weather outlook issued for the region says.

With Long Island now in the storm's forecast cone (historical data indicates that the entire 5-day path of the center of a tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70 percent of the time), the odds of direct impacts from Jose are rising. There's now a 10-20 percent chance of tropical storm-force winds, meaning 39 mph or more, in Nassau County and a 20-30 percent chance in Suffolk County. The "earliest reasonable arrival time" of tropical storm-force winds on the island is around 8 p.m. Monday.

With the storm still days away, "there is still considerable uncertainty with the forecast track at this time" the National Weather Service's Upton office said in its latest forecast discussion.

"Interests along U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days," the hurricane center says.