Bayside's Democratic Voter Turnout Dropped In The 2021 Primary

BAYSIDE, QUEENS — Voter turnout surged citywide during the recent 2021 primary election, but in Bayside fewer Democrats went to the polls or cast an absentee ballot compared to voter turnout in 2013 — the city's last major primary election.

According to data analyzed by The City, the share of registered Democrats in Bayside who voted in this year's primary election decreased by 4.6 percent compared to turnout in 2013.

Below, Patch analyzes some of the factors brought up in The City's report that could have contributed to the decrease in Bayside's Democratic voter turnout.

Bayside's Republican primary

The data analyzed by The City focused on the Democratic voter turnout in each district, but Bayside's District 19 has the highest percentage of Republican voters in Queens.

The district also had the only competitive Republican primary in the borough this cycle.

Among all of the districts in Queens, Bayside's District 19 had the fourth-greatest percentage of voter turnout overall, when you take into account of the area's voters, according to data analyzed by The City.

So, the relative decrease in Democratic voter turnout only shows part of this election's overall voter turnout.

"The AOC Effect"

The City pointed out that races with high percentages of voter turnout — especially in northwest Queens — might have benefited from what The City dubbed "the AOC effect," where U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio energized progressive voters in the area.

Ocasio-Cortez's Courage to Change PAC did not endorse a candidate in the District 19 race.

Similarly, Courage to Change only endorsed a candidate in one of the four district races identified by The City as having the most drastic decrease in Democratic voter turnout.

Incumbent candidates

According to further analysis by Patch, the lower voter turnout in the four districts identified by The City could also be related to the presence of an incumbent candidate in most of those City Council contests.

While elections with incumbent candidates are not guaranteed to have lower turnout (though those variables can be linked), hotly contested races are known to have higher turnout.

There was not an incumbent candidate in the District 19 race, but one of the candidates — who is currently leading the polls — held the City Council seat in Bayside several years ago.

Impacts of the pandemic across Queens

Incumbency and high-profile endorsements are not the only factor that influences voter turnout, especially in neighborhoods that are overwhelmingly populated by voters of color — like those in Corona and southeastern Queens that saw the greatest decreases in the percentage of voters who cast ballots in this year's election.

Laura Wood, the city’s chief democracy officer, told The City that “there is an increase in the work of civic engagement that’s happening in the city right now,” including election reforms like early voting, no-excuse absentee voting — an effect of the pandemic — and ranked choice voting.

However, she also noted there could be “more emphasis” put on other aspects of the voting process, like automatic voter registration, which might prompt more eligible voters to show up to the polls.

It needs to be “easier for people to get involved later in the game,” Wood told The City.

Read the full report by The City here.