Best And Worse Case Scenarios For Coronavirus On Long Island

LONG ISLAND, NY — If moderate social distancing measures are enforced, Nassau County could see 560,000 cases of the new coronavirus by mid-June and Suffolk County could see 540,000 cases by early June, a recent analysis showed.

However, if the most severe control measures are maintained — including strict measures like closing schools and businesses, banning mass gatherings, staying at home whenever possible, and testing and quarantining sick people and their contacts — those numbers could be limited to just 21,000 and 26,000, respectively, with an infection peak coming after July 31.

That's the conclusion of Columbia University researchers as reported by The New York Times, which compiled maps showing the estimated spread of coronavirus in every county in America under varying scenarios for control measures.

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Here's how this projected best-case scenario would look at the county level:

• Nassau: 21,000 cases by Aug. 1; 2 percent infected
• Suffolk: 26,000 cases by Aug. 1; 2 percent infected

A few caveats are important to note here: The projections are based on numbers from March 13, so they could vacillate in either direction based on the cases discovered since then. They are rough estimates, analysts note, which are "inherently uncertain." So this should not be taken as more than a best guess.

But perhaps most importantly, those numbers represent a best-case scenario.

Under the study's middle ground scenario, where moderate, but not strict control measures are maintained, Long Island would peak much sooner, closer to early and mid-June.

The moderate scenario has the number of cases at nearly 1.3 million cases by June 20, with the following breakdown:

• Nassau: 560,000 peak number of cases by June 20; 42 percent infected
• Suffolk: 540,000 peak number of cases by June 10; 36 percent infected

It paints yet another stark portrait of a potential future if social distancing is not maintained.

But social distancing in the United States isn't as easy as telling everyone to stay home, said Mary Travis Bassett, director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University.

"The United States has particular vulnerabilities that make it possible that we'll have the worse coronavirus epidemic of all," Bassett said, citing the country's health, economic and social inequalities.

"These inequalities ... mean that we are both more susceptible and more likely to have people who are not going to follow the public health advice of social distancing, hand-washing and seeking prompt medical care because they risk their livelihood," Bassett said.

She added that many low-wage workers in the health care sector can't afford to miss a day of pay or take a sick day.

"The infusion of financial support to people who are no longer working is absolutely critical," Bassett said. "People are not going to stay home and not feed their families."

Federal lawmakers this week passed the largest disaster relief bill in U.S. history in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package designed to offset the damage caused by the outbreak of coronavirus in the country. The bill will distribute money to states and local municipalities around the country, provide aid to people who have lost their jobs, and bail out businesses that have been hurt by a declining economy as the nation's biggest cities lock down to halt the spread of coronavirus. More than $40 billion will be allocated directly to New York, with much of that money going to relief efforts in the city, U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate minority leader, said in a statement.

Stay-at-home orders are now in place across New York, with all nonessential workers told to keep away from the office as officials scramble to contain the virus. How long this quarantine stage will last, however, remains unknown. Schools remain closed through at least April 15, though that date could be pushed back even more, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo estimates the state will see a peak number of cases in about three weeks.

The number of positive tests came to about 44,000, with roughly 6,500 hospitalizations and 1,600 receiving intensive care treatment. The death toll climbed to 519 on Friday, up from 385 just a day earlier.