Coronavirus Closure Puts NYC Restaurants And Economy In Peril

NEW YORK CITY — Keavy Landreth's decision to temporarily lay off the staff of her Crown Heights bakery Butter & Scotch was only made harder when one worker told her that the city's unemployment office was too busy to take their call.

“Pretty much half the city was unemployed as of this morning,” Landreth said, referencing the tri-state ban forcing New York City bars and restaurants to close their doors, starting at 8 p.m. Monday night.

"It seems things change hour by hour,” Landreth said. “We’re playing it by ear.”

Landreth's estimation might not be exact, but experts agree New York City, and the nation, will face a financial crisis unlike any other in the wake of the new coronavirus outbreak.

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As many as 50,000 restaurant industry workers could lose their jobs and 80 percent of the city's restaurants may have to temporarily close in order to stay afloat, said James Parrott, director of economic and fiscal policies at The New School's Center for New York City Affairs.

Wages lost in the restaurant industry — which has expanded in recent years to 320,000 workers — could amount to between $300 and $400 million in one month, Parrott said.

"I don't think we've ever seen anything like that," Parrott said. "The coronavirus crisis triggered the onset of a national recession whose trajectory is unknowable at this point."

Restaurants across New York City have already reported decreases in business so severe that they've had to let workers go, Patch has learned.

Emmanuel Kavalos, general manager of Kefi on the Upper West Side, has already been forced to lay off half of his staff.

"That's one of the more devastating things because they did nothing wrong." Kavalos said. "It's just the present situation."

The greater economic ramifications could be worse than those of 9/11, when the restaurant industry in Chinatown shut down in the following weeks and months, Parrott said.

"But that was only one part of the city," Parrott noted. "What happens to the restaurants, that's an open question."

The question is one that city restaurateurs don't know how to answer.

Robert Braskin, co-owner of Maiella in Long Island City, is coping by offering delivery for the first time since it opened five years ago, even though he knows he won't turn a profit, he said.

"We don't have another option," Braskin said. “The point is just to at least try and keep our kitchen staff employed during this nightmare.”

Pomme Frites owner Omer Shorshi will also rely on deliveries to pay the rent and electricity bill or face permanently closing his iconic Greenwich Village fry shop.

"Hopefully we don't have to walk away," Shorshi said. "If it's going to be a few months like this there's no way we can survive."

Congress passed a bill Friday to protect sick days and expand family leave, but Parrott argued it wasn't enough to protect small business owners, gig economy workers or an unemployment system already under strain.

"None of those measures are going to replace lost working time and lost earnings," Parrot said. "We have such a frayed social safety net in this country, pretty dramatic actions are needed. "

Mayor Bill de Blasio argued Monday that dramatic action would have to come from the Trump Administration, which would be better equipped to provide relief for the restaurant industry.

"We absolutely feel for them, but this is what the federal government is for," de Blasio said. "We can't front that amount of money."

But the New York City Hospitality Alliance says there is more the city can do, and is drafting recommendations, among them a cap app delivery fees at 10 percent to ease restaurant's financial burden.

"Restaurants and bars will not be able to pay workers once they are forced to close," said Executive Director Andrew Rigie.

"Employees must be taken care of and it is now up to government to provide for them when small businesses cannot."

Yet despite a dire situation in the industry, several of the restaurant owners told Patch they supported Gov. Andrew Cuomo's decision, which they believe will save lives.

"It's going to create a lot of difficulties for a lot of people," Ashley Mondesire, manager at Jane in the West Village, said. "But there is a responsibility for just general public safety"

Anastasia Trinh, general manager of the Upper West Side's Maison Pickle, echoed Mondesire's sentiments.

"Obviously, we understand why these things are happening," Trinh said. "For right now we are focusing on being able to do what we can for our staff and still serve people."

As did Coogan's co-owner Peter Walsh, 73, who said the ban threatens the Washington Heights restaurant that's been in business for 35 years.

"I think it was intelligent," said Walsh. "Even though I’m going to lose extremely on it."

Walsh hopes the government will step in and help, not just for his sake, but for the neighbors who see Coogan's as a meeting hall and the workers who rely on the job to pay their bills.

"We are living in a very strange and perilous time," Walsh said. "This has never happened in our lives."

This article was a collaboration between Patch reporters Anna Quinn, Matt Troutman, Maya Kaufman and Kathleen Culliton.