Confidence In Major Snowstorm Rises For Hudson Valley

HUDSON VALLEY, NY – The Hudson Valley could see more snow fall on Wednesday and Thursday than it did all of last winter, unless, of course, the next storm bypasses us as they all did last winter.

Before that, there is snow possible on Monday with a storm system coming from the southeast and most of the impact south of I-84, which could see a dusting to an inch or two of accumulation.

"Monday's gotten absolutely no attention that I've seen," said Bill Potter of Hudson Valley Weather. "Temps are going to be tumbling. The question will be how far north does this moisture shield get."

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What's getting all the attention is what's coming our way next.

The National Weather Service hasn't made any official snow total estimates for the midweek storm yet, but it did issue a hazardous outlook for "a significant coastal storm Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing heavy snow and/or rain, strong winds, and coastal flood impacts."

The NWS estimates the chances of snow Wednesday night from 90 percent in southern Westchester to 70 percent in the mid-Hudson.

The current forecast says snow is most likely overnight Wednesday.

With the storm still five days away, confidence in the track of the storm system is low, according to AccuWeather.

"The swath of heaviest snow and highest snowfall accumulation is dependent on the exact track of the storm, and small changes in where the storm tracks can lead to big changes in the amounts of snowfall for a given location," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys says. "Where the heaviest snow falls, it could leave a thick-enough blanket of snow to last all the way until Christmas."

The folks at Hudson Valley Weather held one of their late-night fireside chats on Facebook about the storm, a discussion about weather patterns and the analysis behind the forecast.

"We emphasize the word 'potential'," said HVW's Bill Potter. The possibilities range from 4 inches to more than a foot of snow, he said. The question is whether the storm will turn east and head into the Atlantic Ocean so that its northern edge skims the Hudson Valley.

"The best thing to do is to plan for the possibility of more than a foot of snow with the understanding that there is a lot of uncertainty still," Potter said.

The full forecast:

• Sunday-Partly sunny. Patchy fog early this morning. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
• Sunday night-Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
• Monday-Snow and rain. Snow accumulation around an inch. Much cooler. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
• Monday Night-Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
• Tuesday-Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
• Tuesday Night-Mostly clear. Lows around 15.
• Wednesday-Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with highs in the upper 20s.
• Wednesday Night-Snow. Blustery with lows in the lower 20s. chance of snow 80 percent.
• Thursday-Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Brisk with highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent.
• Thursday Night-Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.
• Friday-Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.