Sea Level Rise Projected for the Hudson Valley: DEC

New York has adopted official sea-level rise projections that will help state agencies and coastal communities better plan for the impacts of a changing climate, the State Department of Environmental Conservation announced Monday — and they include the whole Hudson Valley.

“New York is already experiencing the impacts of our changing climate in the form of severe storms and weather events, and our sea levels are rising about two times faster than the global average,” said DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos.

The lower Hudson Valley could see sea levels rise from 2 to 10 inches by the 2020s, the DEC said.

The best available science makes it clear that significant sea-level rise will continue to occur along New York’s coastline, officials said. DEC’s regulation provides a full range of projections to allow decision makers to consider the possibility of rapid sea-level rise when planning long-term land-use change and critical infrastructure. The regulation specifies a range of projections for three separate regions.

In drafting the proposed regulation, DEC conducted extensive public outreach, including focused meetings with stakeholders and five public meetings in New York City and Albany, and on Long Island. DEC also received feedback on the regulation during two public comment periods, officials said.

The adopted projections are based on peer-reviewed research conducted by scientists at Columbia University, Cornell University, and Hunter College as part of the New York State ClimAID study, which included consideration of the possibility of rapid melt of land-based ice on Antarctica and Greenland, DEC officials said in the announcement.

Recently published research confirms that such rapid melting of land-based ice is occurring and could result in high rates of sea-level rise, especially if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. The adopted regulation includes high projections of approximately six feet of sea-level rise by 2100. Many scientists fear that the likelihood of this rate of sea-level rise—or even more—will increase dramatically if current plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and vehicles are curtailed at the federal level, officials said.

“The economic and environmental risks due to future changes in sea level rise are a primary concern for coastal communities throughout New York State,” said New York Secretary of State Rossana Rosado. “The Governor’s adoption of these new sea level rise projections provide a critical benchmark and planning tool to use in ongoing efforts to make communities better able to adapt to the new normal of climate change and create a more resilient New York.”

The text of the regulation and support documents are available on DEC’s website and will be available in the State Register. The original 2011 ClimAID research report and the 2014 update, which were funded by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, are available here.

In addition, the New York Climate Change Science Clearinghouse has aggregated links to extensive climate-related information that can help prioritize future community and conservation planning efforts in the State, officials said.

Map via New York Climate Change Science Clearinghouse