Tropical Storm Hermine Strengthening, But Track Shifts

UPDATE 11 a.m.: An updated hazardous weather outlook issued by the National Weather Service:

STARTING SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MAY IMPACT THE AREA WITH EFFECTS LASTING THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE LEAST...A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AS WELL AS A MODERATE RISK FOR BEACH EROSION WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and then make landfall somewhere along Florida's Gulf Coast Thursday night before taking an uncertain path up the East Coast and potentially washing out Labor Day weekend on Long Island.

The official storm track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted the storm track to the east, but two forecast models project that Hermine will remain stationary to the south of Long Island for a "long time period."

"If this does occur, there would likely be a prolonged period of coastal flooding to deal with," the National Weather Service said in a forecast discussion Thursday morning. "How much coastal flooding we will see would depend on how strong the storm will be."

As of now, Hermine is not expected to be anywhere near hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Northeast, but there is currently a 10-20 percent chance that the region will see tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) late Saturday through Sunday.

"A track closer to the coast would mean higher winds and a track farther out to sea would mean weaker winds," the NWS said.

The National Hurricane Center reported that Tropical Storm Hermine was located about 235 miles west-southwest of Tampa at 8 a.m. Thursday. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving on a north-northeast track at 12 mph.

Here's the latest forecast for the region (sign up here for Patch breaking news alerts for the latest updates on Hermine):

Thursday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 78. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 62. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 8 to 13 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 6 to 8 mph.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of rain after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 11 to 14 mph.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy.

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Labor Day: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Images: National Weather Service