PA COVID Positivity Rate Drops To 6.5 Percent, Lowest Since Fall

PENNSYLVANIA — Pennsylvania is continuing to make strong progress statewide in suppressing coronavirus, as last fall's surge that intensified in early winter has continued to steadily abate.

The statewide percent positivity rate on all COVID-19 tests is now down to 6.5 percent, which is the lowest mark the state has seen since early November. That's according to the most recent data available, released Monday but taken from Feb. 12 through Feb. 18. That data shows the rate decreased by 1.5 percent from the week before.

“Following these proven public health practices, our mitigation orders, and most importantly, the resilience of our fellow Pennsylvanians to unite against COVID-19, Pennsylvania is seeing encouraging data relating to less COVID-19 spread within the community as we report lowered statewide positivity rates as well as lowered case counts,” Gov. Tom Wolf said in a statement Monday.

In fact, the decline has been steady for nearly the entire New Year. On Dec. 31, 2020, the positivity rate stood at 15 percent, marking an 8.5 decrease since then.

Not since the first week of November, when the rate stood at 6.1 percent, has it been as low as it is now.

The improvements are an especially welcome sign as the state's vaccination efforts continue to hit snag after snag, and insufficient doses are being shipped from the federal level.

While the virus is still very much present in communities statewide — and other threats, like more infectious variants, still loom — Pennsylvania has come a long way since the fall. “While we know there is reduced community spread, it is still important to continue public health efforts across the state," Wolf added.

Here's a glance at how metrics have improved:

Total cases, incidence rate

The total number of cases statewide is almost exactly what it was in early November, the last time the percent positivity rate was this low.

There were 14,886 cases over the most recently tracked seven-day period, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health. That's an improvement of 5,461 cases over the week previous, which saw 20,347 new cases.

The first week of November, this weekly number stood at 14,516.

In the four-odd months in between, case loads surged to the highest marks of the pandemic. By late November, the weekly rate of new cases was over 46,000.

The incidence rate per 100,000 residents over a seven day period is also down now to 116, from 158 last week. It stood at 315 on Dec. 31, and was up to 453 in early December.

Healthcare metrics

Hospitalization rates and related healthcare statistics have long been among the most crucial measures cited by officials throughout the pandemic. Fears of overwhelmed hospitals and emergency rooms have repeatedly been pointed to as reasons for shutdown policies and other aggressive mitigation orders.

The average daily number of hospitalizations due to coronavirus fell this week to 2,298. That's down more than 500 from last week, when it stood at 2,806.

This number was as high 5,896 around the New Year.

Other healthcare metrics have seen simultaneous decline. The percent of hospital emergency room visits due to COVID-19 symptoms remains at 0.6 percent statewide, after being more than double that at 1.3 percent on Dec. 31.

And finally, the average number of patients on ventilators each day is down to 263, from 307 last week. At the New Year, it was 713.

Transmission categories

There are still 40 counties in the "substantial" level of transmission, which includes counties with more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over a seven day period, or a percent positivity rate above 10 percent over seven days. The categories are used to inform health department recommendations on school learning programs and related policies.

All 67 counties were in the substantial level through early January.

Three counties are now in the "low level," and 24 are now in the "moderate" level. The full breakdown is below:

• Low – Cameron, Fulton, Sullivan
• Moderate – Allegheny, Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Butler, Cambria, Clarion, Clearfield, Crawford, Elk, Fayette, Indiana, Jefferson, Mercer, Montgomery, Potter, Somerset, Susquehanna, Tioga, Venango, Warren, Washington, Westmoreland, Wyoming
• Substantial – Adams, Beaver, Berks, Bradford, Bucks, Carbon, Centre, Chester, Clinton, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Erie, Forest, Franklin, Greene, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lebanon, Lehigh, Luzerne, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Monroe, Montour, Northampton, Northumberland, Perry, Philadelphia, Pike, Schuylkill, Snyder, Union, Wayne, York