Montco Area Coronavirus Peak 'About 2 Weeks Away': Officials

NORRISTOWN, PA — Officials believe the peak of the virus could be about two weeks away in the Montgomery County area, according to recent data they've analyzed.

Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh said that the data looks at the number of cases both in the county and statewide, and compares the progression of the disease here to other places around the country and the world.

Stay up to date on coronavirus developments, sign up for Patch news alerts.

That estimate is somewhat different from a New York Times report, based on research out of Columbia University, that estimated a peak anywhere from mid-June to late summer in Montgomery County and all of southeastern Pennsylvania. However, that data was based on numbers from earlier in March.

The exact timing and intensity of the peak, of course, is highly variable. And the greatest variable is the degree to which residents socially distance themselves.

"This is no time to relax," Arkoosh said Monday. "This is the time to redouble your efforts to stay at home."

>>6th Person Dies From Coronavirus In Montgomery County

The New York Times report, which broke forecasts down on the county level, indicated Montgomery County could see around 99,000 cases of the virus by a roughly June peak, if very strict social distancing is enforced.

More moderate enforcement, conversely, could lead to up to 2.8 million cases in the county, completely overwhelming local healthcare infrastructure.

>>Study Looks At Best Case, Worse Case Scenarios For Coronavirus In Eastern PA

"Only make the most essential trips outside of your house," Arkoosh added. "The more people that don't (stay at home), the greater the chances of overwhelming our hospitals."

As of Monday afternoon, 48 people had died around the state from coronavirus, with 4,087 positive cases all told. Montgomery County announced its sixth death on Monday, with 506 positives in the county.

>>Latest coronavirus updates in Pennsylvania