Phillies Quietly Open Season As One Of Baseball's Best Teams

PHILADELPHIA, PA -- Nearly every major pre-season statistical projection had the Phillies repeating in 2016 as the worst team in baseball.

Newspapers were filled with the tired defeatist jargon of the past three years, bemoaning Ryan Howard's age and contract, the punchless offense, the unproven pitching staff, the empty bullpen.

Now, with the season about a sixth of the way complete, the Phillies hold one of the best records in all of baseball at 16-11. If the playoffs were to start Wednesday, they would face off in the Wild Card game against the reigning NL Champion New York Mets.

The NL East in general, widely predicted to be the worst division in baseball, has thus far proven to be the best. Collectively, the division holds the highest winning percentage out of all divisions in the majors.

Granted, many of the Phillies wins have been close. Their young starting pitchers are likely to tire, and could face innings limits as the season goes on. Their offense remains subpar. On the whole, MLB.com notes that their run differential - how many runs they have scored versus how many runs they have allowed - is minus 22, despite the fact that they have given up very few runs.

Yet despite what such statistics may indicate, they are, in the meantime, irrelevant. Teams do not earn anything for winning games by large margins. A 1-0 win, like they earned Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, counts just as much as a 10-0 blowout. And baseball will always be, in some part, a game of fortune.

There are also statistics that play in the Phillies favor. Thus far, they've played all of their in-division games against the two teams that are considered far and away the best: the Nationals and the Mets. Ahead on their schedule lie dozens of much more favorable matchups with the Marlins and the struggling Braves.

While the Phils' starting pitching may come down to earth slightly, and while pitchers like Vince Velasquez might face an innings limit, there is no shortage of major league-ready depth in the Phillies farm system. Mark Appel and Zach Eflin are utterly dominating Triple-A batters and are waiting for their chance.

Moreover, their offense is unlikely to get any worse. A few hitters are slumping. Cody Asche, and, later, Aaron Altherr will return from the disabled list. Summertime call-ups are likely for several top hitting prospects currently in their minor league system, including Nick Williams and J.P. Crawford.

Finally, baseball's statistical projections have proven themselves to be, time and again, no more reliable than the frustrated prognoses of sports radio WIP callers. The Kansas City Royals, who have won back to back American League Championships and won the World Series last year, were "projected" to place last in their division in both years by PECOTA, the industry standard predictive model.

Take these factors together, and the massive regression that many pundits expect of the Phillies is no longer a given.

No, they probably won't continue at their current pace, but then again, most believed they probably wouldn't start the season out 16-11. It would seem extremely unlikely at this point that the Phillies collapse to the bottom of the league where they dwelt last year. A record close to .500 is not out of reach.

And all of the sudden, neither are the Mets and Nationals.