BREAKING: Joaquin Becomes Hurricane, Pennsylvania In Its Expected Path

By TOM DAVIS

Tropical Storm Joquin was upgraded to a hurricane Wednesday, and new models from the National Weather Service show it crashing into the mid-Atlantic and northward, possibly hitting Pennsylvania and other northeast states.

Various weather services emphasized that Joquin’s path is still uncertain and could change yet again, but they warned of coastal flooding and even more severe damage whether it makes land or not.

Tropical Storm Joaquin’s maximum sustained wind speed increased to 65 miles per hour Tuesday afternoon, but the storm could pack winds as high as 90 to 100 mph once it approaches the East Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center declared it a hurricane at 8 a.m. on Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel said the storm could reach the New Jersey-Pennsylvania region by late Sunday or early Monday morning.

To reach hurricane status, wind speeds need to hit a sustained 74 miles per hour, just a nine-mile-per-hour increase from Joaquin’s current strength.

The storm was spinning Tuesday afternoon toward the Bahamas, but the National Weather Service expects it to cut north Friday.

The National Weather Service has issued its first warning in weeks, saying Joaquin is expected to move northward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Depending on the track, another round of potential heavy rainful may result in flooding.

Initial projections had the storm touching the Southeast, but that forecast was later changed to show its path pointed toward the Eastern tip of North Carolina by Sunday afternoon.

“Consensus has rapidly formed that tropical weather impact risk has escalated sharply, and is now abnormally high,” Gary Szatkowski, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in New Jersey, wrote on his Twitter account.

Even if it doesn’t strike the coast, it will still have noticeable weather effects.

“Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin’s path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding,” the Weather Channel says.

The Weather Channel described Joaquin as a “difficult forecast,” with four different weather patterns making life tough for forecasters.

Here are the current elements influencing the storm, according to the Weather Channel:

• A cold front near the East Coast
• Remnants of Tropical Storm Ida in the Southeast Atlantic
• High pressure over the North Atlantic
• Low pressure approaching the Southeast

“Joaquin’s future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players,” the Weather Channel says. “Not to mention its own strength, which is currently being limited by strong wind shear that’s keeping most of its thunderstorm activity south of its center of circulation.”

Image via National Weather Service