Beautiful, cool night for Wednesday; heat, humidity starts to return by Thursday; weekend heat wave possible

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on July 21, 2016

At the moment, you could not ask for better weather for Rhode Island, or for all of Southern New England, for that matter. Dewpoint temperatures are low, air temperatures are in the lower 80’s, and the sun is bright. It will also be cool for tonight, as I am expecting clear skies and low temperatures falling into the lower 60’s. We can give the air conditioners and fans a night off.

However, we will be powering up once again after Thursday. A dome of high pressure will keep us under sunny skies once again, but winds will begin to turn from the northwest to the west-southwest. This will allow for warmer air to slowly shift back up to the north. It will reflect in our high temperatures, as the mercury climbs back into the upper 80’s. Also, more moisture will return to Rhode Island, making the air muggy and humid once again. Winds will turn to the southwest by Thursday night, helping to keep temperatures quite warm. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60’s.

Heading into the weekend, an upper level ridge will be just east of Connecticut by Friday morning. Also, a cold front from a low over Quebec, Canada will begin to move towards Southern New England. We will see some high and mid-level clouds during the late morning, with the slight risk for a passing shower or thunderstorm ahead of the front. We will see enough sunshine for some isolated areas inland to reach 90 degrees. Otherwise, central and southern Rhode Island will see temperatures in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Our best chance to see scattered showers and thunderstorms will be after 8 p.m. Friday night. Also, based on the atmospheric conditions, some thunderstorms could become strong to severe. However, I hope to have a better assessment by Friday afternoon’s newest weather discussion. The cold front pushes through around 11 p.m., with the precipitation tapering off by 3 a.m. There may be a few isolated showers going into sunrise Saturday. It will remain quite mild, with overnight lows in the lower 70’s. Skies will begin to clear inland after 8 a.m., but there may be a passing shower left at the south coast. The whole state will see sunshine by noon, and the heat will return. Expect a hazy, hot, humid day with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90’s. Saturday night looks fine for any outdoor activities, from Water Fire in Providence to Big Time Wrestling McCoy Stadium on the field in Pawtucket. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 70’s during the overnight.

With the chance of seeing two 90 degree days, is it possible we will see a “heat wave” of three days? The models are certainly showing it, as high pressure ridging comes down from central Canada for Sunday. We will continue to see sunny skies, with temperatures in the lower 90’s. At this time, some models are showing a little extra moisture moving over into our atmosphere for Sunday night, creating mostly cloudy skies. One model even gives us the risk for a passing shower. I accept the moisture, but the air will be too stable for any shower activity. So, I will call for mostly cloudy skies Sunday night with lows in the lower 70’s.

We will see partly sunny skies for Monday, as a new low pressure system moves over Quebec, Canada. This low will bring extra moisture into the Northeast U.S. by the afternoon. We may see a passing shower by the mid-afternoon; otherwise, expect more clouds than sunshine and highs in the upper 80’s. The front moves through after midnight, giving us the risk for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows will be in the lower 70’s. The front will be slow moving, so we may keep isolated showers through the morning on Tuesday. We will see some sunshine by noon, and it will be warm, but not hot. We will also see the dewpoint temperatures lower slightly. Highs on Tuesday is forecast to reach the middle 80’s, with partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60’s Tuesday night.

Finally, looking ahead to next Wednesday, high pressure over Central Canada will bring high pressure ridging into the Northeast U.S. We will return to light northerly winds, along with mostly sunny skies. It will remain warm, however, as the mercury climbs into the middle 80’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.