Possible showers, thunderstorms expected tonight into Sunday; more precipitation possible Monday night; drier Tuesday night

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on July 17, 2016

Over the last few days, we have felt the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer. High temperatures reached 89 degrees Friday and Saturday. Also, we have seen some much needed rainfall, as Warwick has reported about 0.80 inches of rainfall Thursday and Friday. We have a few more chances at seeing more isolated showers and thunderstorms. Then, we will see a dry pattern, with some cooler temperatures by midweek.

At the moment, a stationary front is draping over eastern Connecticut. A weak wave of low pressure from the Mid-Atlantic coastline will move northward through the overnight. This low will join with the front, and the instability may help create isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for any precipitation will be before midnight. With higher dewpoints, the south coast may see patchy fog during the overnight. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60’s. For Sunday, we will keep the slight risk for a shower or thunderstorm through the day. Otherwise, it will be overcast, with highs in the middle 80’s. By 9 p.m., the sun has set, and drier air from the south will slowly move into the atmosphere. We will see starlit skies Sunday night, but it will remain humid with overnight lows only falling into the upper 60’s.

On Monday, the high pressure ridge will begin to break down, as a strong cold front from the Great Lakes approaches Southern New England. We will see mostly sunny skies through the mid-afternoon, with increasing clouds by the evening commute. Daytime highs should reach the lower 90’s. The front is expected to reach Rhode Island before 8 p.m. We will see the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the Ocean State. There is the slight chance some thunderstorms may be strong, but at the moment computer models feel the risk is quite low. Expect lows Monday only in the lower 70’s.

The front will just be moving offshore by the middle of the morning commute on Tuesday. We may see a widely isolated shower or thunderstorm by the mid-morning. Then, we will see partial sunshine by the afternoon, as high pressure ridging slowly tries to bring drier air into New England. Expect daytime highs in the upper 80’s. By Tuesday night, cooler air behind the front will enter the region, with high pressure firmly in control. The humidity will be lower, and you can actually will feel a cool breeze coming into your home. Tuesday night’s lows will fall into the lower 60’s. With winds coming from a northerly direction Wednesday, we will keep mostly sunny skies, but high temperatures are only expected to reach 80 degrees. The high pressure center will be right over New England Wednesday night, giving us clear skies, light winds, and lows in the lower 60’s.

Unfortunately, the cool weather will quickly come to an end. The upper level trough will move east, allowing for an upper-level ridge to begin moving towards the eastern U.S. We will keep the sunny skies for Thursday, but the mercury will begin to rise once again, reaching its peak at the middle 80’s. We will keep partly cloudy skies for Thursday night, with lows in the upper 60’s.

As we approach the weekend, the computer models begin to go astray on their solutions. We will keep a strong high pressure ridge off the Atlantic. But, the models are disagreeing on how to handle a developing low pressure system near the border between Minnesota and Canada. Two models, the American and United Kingdom, keeps the low further south, moving it into Quebec, Canada by Saturday morning. So, we will keep mostly sunny skies Friday, with highs reaching the lower 90’s. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday night, with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. I will go between the models, and say we will see partly sunny skies next Saturday, with highs in the upper 80’s. But, I will add the slight risk for a passing shower or thunderstorm from 6 a.m. until 2 p.m. Most of the moisture dissipates or stays well to the north. We will see partly cloudy skies for Saturday night, with lows in the upper 60’s.

First Pitch Forecast (for McCoy Stadium, home of the Pawtucket Red Sox):

July 17th vs Charlotte (1:05 p.m.): Mostly cloudy, risk of passing showers/thunderstorms, 83.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.