RI Weather: Drier But Colder Weather Ahead For Weekend; Snow Showers Super Bowl Evening

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 3, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs will be in the lower 30’s, with W winds of 7-10 mph. Partly cloudy and cold at night, with lows in the upper teens.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny with WNW winds of 10-14 mph and highs in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper teens.

Forecast Discussion:

On this Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning. Based on the popular folklore, this means we will receive six more weeks of winter. I know that is what everyone wanted to hear today. However, if you look at the average temperature in January in the capital city, Providence had the 11th warmest January ever recorded. For the next few days, anyway, colder air will begin to spill into Southern New England.

Actually, we are awaiting a weak disturbance moving over eastern Connecticut. We had a few flurries and snow showers across northern Rhode Island between 10 a.m. and noon. Since then, we have seen a mix of sun and clouds. Once the disturbance passes to our east, skies will become clear by midnight. But, temperatures will begin to fall, with lows this evening reaching the lower 20’s.

High pressure coming out of the eastern Rockies will bring a strong ridge into New England by Friday morning. We will see bright sunshine and a few fair weather clouds, but temperatures will struggle to reach freezing. We will see partly cloudy skies Friday night, with lows in the upper teens. High pressure will settle over South Carolina on Saturday, continuing to give us mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 30’s. Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the upper teens.

The high will move offshore Sunday morning, giving us partly to mostly sunny skies through the daytime hours. As we move into the late afternoon, a low pressure system will move into Quebec, Canada. This low may bring some snow showers before 6 p.m. Winds will be increasing during the overnight, but I do not see any significant snowfall. If anything, we may see a coating to a half inch of snow before the cold front moves well offshore after midnight, as many will come home from attending Super Bowl parties. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the middle 30’s, with lows in the upper 20’s. A weak area of high pressure to our south will give us mostly sunny skies for Monday, with highs in the middle 30’s. We will start off Monday night with partly cloudy skies, but will see increasing clouds going into sunrise Tuesday morning. Lows will reach 20 degrees, but temperatures will slowly rise through the overnight hours.

As we begin the morning commute Tuesday, a low pressure system centered over northern Arkansas will have a warm front moving into the Mid-Atlantic. For us, some of the precipitation from that front will begin to move northward. We may see a few snow showers during the commute, with light snow through the day. The warm front will remain south of us until Tuesday evening. Highs on Tuesday will only reach the middle 30’s. We will have at least 2-3 inches of snow on the ground by Tuesday evening. The warm front moves just north of Rhode Island late Tuesday night. So, snow will mix with sleet and rain, before changing over to plain rain. However, the exact timing of this is still in doubt. We are still about five days away from this event, so it will be hard to lock down the exact timing. Lows will only fall into the lower 30’s, but temperatures are expected to rise during the overnight.

It will be much milder on Wednesday, as southerly winds help to raise our temperatures into the middle to upper 40’s. So, most of the precipitation during the morning and afternoon hours will be just rain. The rain will taper off to showers by the late afternoon, before all precipitation ends by the early evening. However, the American model keeps a weak disturbance over the Great Lakes, which may help try to bring some snow showers in for Wednesday evening. At this time, I will keep us dry, as no other models are showing any precipitation over us. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the lower to middle 30’s. We will have partly sunny skies for next Thursday, with highs in the upper 30’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.