RI Weather: Few Showers Friday Night; Frozen Precipitation Possible Sunday Night

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 21, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Saturday: Overcast with scattered showers until 7 a.m. Skies become partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 50’s with WSW winds of 5-8 mph. Mostly cloudy skies overnight, with lows in the upper 30’s.
• Sunday: Overcast with drizzle possible by the late afternoon. Showers/rain to begin by 8 p.m. Precipitation may mix as sleet/snow or snow/rain north of Providence after midnight. Highs will be in the upper 40’s with ENE winds increasing to 15-18 mph before midnight early Monday morning. Lows will be in the lower to middle 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

Despite a very weak ridge of high pressure over the Ocean State, we have remained overcast through Friday. This is due from moisture from a warm front south of New England. We will see some scattered showers possible ahead of the front move through the area early Saturday morning. A weak ridge will try to bring some drier air over us by the afternoon. So, I am predicting partial to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. However, we will return to mostly cloudy skies Saturday night, with lows in the upper 30’s. Then, we can expect a major low pressure system to affect us by Sunday evening.

Through Sunday, the low will strengthen as it moves across Oklahoma and Arkansas. However, rainfall associated with the low will be east and north of the low’s center. A secondary low will form near western Virginia by the afternoon. This low will bring the energy up into the Northeast U.S. by Sunday night. We may see some drizzle by the late afternoon, along with some patchy fog, especially along the south coast. Showers will become heavier by 8 p.m., with heavier precipitation through the overnight. But, because temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30’s at night, northern Rhode Island may see a mix of sleet and snow, or a mix of rain and snow. This possibility occurs if the low tracks further south and east. At the moment, we remain in the warm side, meaning we would see mostly rain. However, listen for weather updates on Sunday, when we are closer to the actual event.

As we move into Monday, any mixed precipitation will change to all rain by the mid-morning. Also, with a tight pressure gradient near the warm front, winds will be gusty and strong. Early indications that we may see wind gusts of 40-45 mph sustained, especially at the coastline. This may lead to power outages. The heavy winds and warm front will not occur until early Monday evening. High temperatures Monday will be in the lower 40’s, with lows Monday night being in the middle to upper 30’s. Rain and winds will taper off after 3 a.m. Tuesday morning. However, we will keep showers and light rain throughout Tuesday, as the low’s center remains over Cape Cod. This will keep a circular rotation of showers staying over the Ocean State. Highs are expected to be in the lower 40’s, with lows in the lower 30’s.

Any showers will end before midnight Tuesday night, but we will keep some cloudy conditions. The low will move into the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday morning, a high pressure ridge will return mostly sunny skies for Wednesday, with highs in the middle 40’s. We will keep partly cloudy skies Wednesday night, with lows in the middle 30’s.

The computer models disagree on how much precipitation we will receive on Thursday. Once a cold front comes through Thursday morning, the American model believes it will be a dry front. The European model, however, feels we will see steady showers and rain through the day. However, the European model does have a bias when it comes to precipitation forecasts, usually creating more precipitation than predicted. So, I will call for dry weather at the moment, but will watch the models over the next few model runs. Highs on Thursday will reach the middle 40’s, with mostly cloudy skies Thursday night. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30’s.

Finally, looking ahead to next Friday, a disturbance to our west will give us the risk for some showers, especially by the evening. I will call for partly sunny skies with scattered showers arriving by 9 p.m. Highs on next Friday will be in the lower 40’s, with lows in the middle 30’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.