RI Weather: Mild Temperatures into Thursday; Showers, Rain, Possible Thunderstorms Tuesday & Wednesday

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 28, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Tuesday: Overcast with isolated showers after 5 a.m. Scattered showers expected after 4 p.m. Look for highs in the middle 50’s with SE winds of 5-8 mph. Showers/rain overnight, with patchy fog and lows in the middle 40’s.
• Wednesday: Scattered showers through the day, with the slight chance for a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 60’s, with SSW winds of 15-20 mph and gusts near 30 mph. Showers/thunderstorms end after midnight, with partial clearing. Lows will fall out of the 50’s into the upper 40’s through the night.

Forecast Discussion:

Although we are not having the record breaking warm temperatures at the moment, we are still having above normal high temperatures. As of 3 p.m. Monday, T.F. Green Airport has a high of 52 degrees. This is about 8-10 degrees above normal for the end of February. The mild temperatures will stick around for a few more days, despite some wet weather arriving.

High pressure offshore in the Atlantic continues to give us sunny skies on Monday, but the high pressure ridge will begin to break down this evening. Some low level clouds from a weak cold front in Northern New England will move over the region tonight, giving us mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures tonight will be in the middle 30’s. A low pressure system moving into the Central Plains will bring the risk for some scattered showers during the morning commute Tuesday. Steadier precipitation arrives by 10 p.m., with light to moderate rain into Wednesday morning. Patchy fog is also possible through the overnight. Look for lows to only fall into the middle 40’s. We will see scattered showers throughout Wednesday, and there is the slight chance for a passing thunderstorm going into Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be quite breezy, as we expect some colder air to come behind the cold front associated with this low. Any thunderstorms, rain, and showers come to an end early Thursday morning, once the front moves past Rhode Island around midnight. Our high temperature on Thursday may occur at midnight, as temperatures are continued to fall into sunrise. All precipitation ends after 4 a.m., with skies beginning to clear

It will remain breezy on Thursday morning, as the low pressure system continues to move into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure ridging will return us to mostly sunny skies, but temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler, with highs only near 50. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday night, with lows falling into the upper 20’s. By Friday, an Alberta Clipper system may be passing south of Southern New England. We may see a mix of snow and rain showers, or just wet snow, shortly before noon. The precipitation will end by 9 p.m., with maybe a couple of inches of snow on the ground. But, if the system moves further south, we may not see much of anything. For now, I will keep the risk for some precipitation, as the European model does suggest a weak low in the same location as the American model. Look for highs in the middle to upper 30’s. High pressure down over the Southeast U.S. will bring mostly sunny skies once again for Saturday, and we will remain cold. Lows Friday night will fall into the lower 20’s, with highs on Saturday only in the middle 30’s. Lows Saturday night will warm up into the middle 20’s.

Looking to Sunday, we will start off with some sunshine, but another possible Alberta Clipper system bringing some wet snow at first, then turning to rain showers. High temperatures will skyrocket into the middle 40’s. Skies will clear by Sunday night, with lows in the lower 30’s. We will see partly sunny skies next Monday, with the risk of a warm front bringing some showers after 9 p.m. in the evening. Highs will reach near 50 degrees.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.