RI Weather: Mixed Frozen Precipitation Tuesday Morning; Changing To Rain By Afternoon

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 7, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Tuesday: Snow showers/freezing rain north of Providence by 7 a.m., before changing to plain rain by noon. The rest of the state will be just plain showers. A coating to an inch of snow is possible before the changeover. Highs near 40 with ENE winds of 5-8 mph. Patchy fog is possible after 3 p.m. Rain continues Tuesday night, with patchy fog. Lows in the middle 30’s.
• Wednesday: Wet and mild, with rain and showers. Highs will rise into the middle 50’s, with WNW 8-12 mph by the afternoon. Showers end by noon, with possible showers returning before midnight, before changing over to light snow into early Thursday morning. Lows will be in the lower 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

At the moment, a high pressure ridge is giving us bright sunshine across the Ocean State this Monday afternoon. However, as we move into this evening, moisture from a warm front to our south will begin to bring increasing clouds. A low pressure system near western Illinois Tuesday morning will slowly move northeastward, helping to bring some precipitation to Southern New England into the region through Wednesday.

However, the precipitation will begin Tuesday morning in the form of some frozen precipitation for northern Rhode Island. In fact, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northwest Providence County, from 6 a.m. Tuesday until 7 p.m. We should see some frozen precipitation north of Providence by 7 a.m., while the rest of the state should see plain rain. That frozen precipitation may be a mix of snow showers and freezing rain. By noon, temperatures will warm up, and precipitation across the state will become just plain rain. High temperatures will be in the upper 30’s to near 40. Showers and light rain will continue into Tuesday night, with lows in the middle 30’s. However, temperatures will be rising through the overnight.

By Wednesday, the low’s center will slowly shift into Canada, and the precipitation will taper off through the late morning. Showers should end by 10 a.m., but we will keep mostly cloudy skies through the day. It will be extremely mild, as high temperatures rise into the middle 50’s. However, a cold front will pass through the area by the afternoon, helping to shift winds to the northwest. Colder air behind the front will slowly lower our temperatures into the evening.

By Wednesday night, the computer models have greatly changed their thinking since my last update. Many computer models are now agreeing that a low pressure system will develop over southern Virginia by the early evening. This low will move offshore towards the northeast. For us, this means we may see some precipitation once again. The precipitation will start off as rain showers, but with colder temperatures, the precipitation will change over to snow after midnight. As the low moves further towards the Canadian Maritimes Thursday morning, light snow may continue until tapering to flurries by the late morning. At this point, there is the chance for a few inches of snowfall before Thursday afternoon. I will continue to watch the models, as this may interfere with school and work starting for the morning commute. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 20’s, with highs Thursday in the lower to middle 30’s. We will finally return to partly cloudy skies Thursday night, but it will be chilly, as lows fall into the middle teens.

A weak high pressure ridge will start us off with mostly sunny skies on Friday, but a quick moving low pressure system over the Great Lakes will bring increasing clouds by the early afternoon. This low will bring a few snow showers by midnight Friday evening. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 30’s, with lows Friday night in the lower 20’s. A broad area of low pressure will remain stationary over Northern New England on Saturday, giving us the chance for some more rain showers during the daylight hours. Highs on Saturday will reach the lower 40’s. We will remain mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows near freezing. A new low over the Ohio River Valley will bring the risk for rain showers by the mid-afternoon on Sunday. Showers would continue into next Monday morning, before the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes by the late morning. Skies would become partly sunny by the afternoon. Highs will be in the middle 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.