RI Weather: Record Breaking Temperatures Possible Thursday; Showers Possible Friday

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 23, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Thursday: Morning patchy fog, especially along the south coast, burns off by 9 a.m. Mostly sunny skies, with highs in the lower 60’s. Winds from the SW at 9-12 mph. Skies turn mostly cloudy at night, with the risk for some scattered showers after midnight. Look for lows in the middle 40’s.
• Friday: Passing showers in the morning hours; otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected. Highs will be in the upper 50’s with south winds at 5-8 mph. Mostly cloudy skies with the risk for passing showers and lows in the middle 40’s.

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure off the coast of North Carolina is helping Southern New England feel a little bit of spring during the winter season. We have already hit 56 degrees at T.F. Green Airport, when our normal temperature for the year should be about 44 degrees. This spring weather will only last into the weekend, then we return to more normal winter temperatures by early next week.

At the moment, south winds are helping to keep the mild air streaming into Southern New England. The high will continue to give us mostly sunny skies into Thursday. Also, we may break a 27 year high temperature record, set at 60 degrees back in 1990. Computer models are predicting highs in the lower 60’s in the capital city, although the south coast will see high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler, thanks to a sea breeze. A low pressure system in the Great Lakes will help bring increasing clouds over the Ocean State tonight, with the risk for a few showers after midnight. The showers are due to a back door cold front that will try to move into Southern New England. Look for lows to only fall into the middle 40’s.

By Friday morning, there may be some passing showers during the morning hours. The cold front is forecast to stay north of us, so we will not lose the warmer than normal temperatures. We will see limited sunshine through the afternoon, with highs in the upper 50’s. The risk for passing showers increase into Friday night, as we await a low pressure system moving into the Central U.S. The cold front may move slightly south to hit us with some showers before moving back to the north as a warm front. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 40’s.

We will see scattered to numerous showers throughout Saturday afternoon, as the low slowly moves north and east. We will keep the warm temperatures for one last day, as highs will reach near 60. But, the cold front is expected to move through after 7 p.m., with colder air behind it moving over the region. The precipitation will come to an end by 3 a.m., as high pressure ridging from the south takes over our weather. Lows will fall into the upper 30’s, as the colder air brings us back to normal conditions.

An upper level trough will now keep the warmer air from the south cut off from us for the next few days. We will return to mostly sunny skies by Sunday, but high temperatures will only be normal for late February, reaching the middle 40’s. The high keeps us under clear skies Sunday night, but now only leftover puddles or water will turn to black ice, as lows fall into the upper 20’s. We will see limited sunshine on Monday, as a low pressure system in the South Central U.S. moves north. We may even see the risk for some showers by the mid-afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40’s. Showers may continue into Monday night, if the low tracks into the Northeast U.S. Lows will be in the lower 30’s. There is the chance some snow showers may mix with rain showers. All precipitation ends by 6 a.m., with mostly sunny skies on Tuesday. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 40’s. We will see overcast skies before the morning commute on Wednesday, with lows in the middle 30’s. The long range outlook calls for rain by 9 a.m., with heavier rain through the afternoon. Highs will reach the middle to upper 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.