RI Weather: Showers End Tonight; Dry, Cooler Weather Ahead for Weekend

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 27, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. There is the slight chance for passing snow showers between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. Highs will be in the lower 40’s, with W winds of 14-17 mph. Partly cloudy skies expected for the overnight, with lows in the upper 20’s.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny and continued breezy. Highs in the lower 40’s with W winds of 11-15 mph. Partly cloudy overnight, with lows in the upper 20’s.

Forecast Discussion:

At the moment, a strong low pressure system in the Canadian Maritimes has brought a cold front through Southern New England. Any showers from Thursday morning will come to an end by this evening. As the front moves further east, drier but colder air behind it will settle over New England. This will help increase our winds from the north, as they will remain breezy for the next couple of days. Skies will become partly cloudy after midnight.

A weak high pressure ridge will provide us with mostly sunny skies on Friday. But, we may see some increasing low-level clouds by the afternoon, as lake effect snow showers off the Great Lakes brings moisture over the Ocean State. In fact, there may be a few early evening snow showers passing through the area. The weak disturbance will pass offshore by Friday night, and we will return to partly cloudy skies by midnight. This weak ridge will continue to give us mostly sunny conditions for Saturday and partly cloudy skies for Saturday night. However, an upper-level trough will help keep our temperatures slightly above normal, with highs only in the lower 40’s. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the upper 20’s.

The lake effect snow showers will still drape much of the eastern Great Lakes region as we enter Sunday. Some of that moisture will move over Southern New England, giving us partly sunny conditions. There is the slight chance we might see some isolated rain showers, especially in the morning and afternoon hours. The atmosphere will see some drier air arrive by Sunday night, returning us to partly cloudy skies. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 30’s, with lows in the middle 20’s.

I am still watching a developing low pressure system form off of Cape Hatteras, NC late Sunday night. Although the American and European models develop the low south of Rhode Island, and the United Kingdom model only keeps a broad low offshore, I still feel there is the risk for some snow showers for Monday. The American model has been the most consistent about this possible scenario the last two days. But, a secondary low forms well east of the primary low in the American model, which is the same exact spot of the primary low in the European model’s forecast. For now, I will call for mostly cloudy skies on Monday, with the risk for some passing snow showers. At this time, the best chance for snow showers would be in the mid-morning to late afternoon time range. But, accumulations will be light, as the ground’s temperatures are above freezing, and most of the energy from this system is in the ocean. Skies become partly cloudy Monday night, as a high pressure ridge moves over New England. Highs on Monday will only be in the middle 30’s, with lows in the lower 20’s.

We will see partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday, as the high pressure ridge begins to weaken. An Alberta Clipper system will be rapidly moving east through the morning and afternoon. We may see some snow showers from this system by 9 p.m. Tuesday evening. Look for highs in the middle 30’s, with lows in the upper 20’s. We will continue to see some snow showers into Wednesday morning, before the precipitation mixes or changes over to rain by the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 30’s. The cold front is offshore by the start of the evening commute, with precipitation tapering off. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the upper 20’s.

A strong high pressure system coming out of the Rockies will help bring back mostly sunny skies for next Thursday. Look for highs to reach the upper 30’s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy next Thursday night, with lows in the middle to upper 20’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.