RI Weather: Showers Finally End Wednesday Morning; Partial Clearing In Afternoon; More Showers Thursday?

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 25, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Wednesday: Showers ending by mid-morning, with gradual clearing during the afternoon. However, increasing clouds is expected through the evening. Highs will be in the middle 40’s with NW winds 11-14 mph. Lows will be in the middle 30’s.
• Thursday: Overcast with possible showers starting at 8 a.m. Highs will be in the upper 40’s with WSW winds of 7-10 mph. Partly cloudy skies by midnight, with lows in the lower 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

The rain and wind over the last 18 hours helped create power outages for about 2,000 people in the Ocean State. Everyone has received at least an inch and a half of rain, with Fall River, MA receiving almost 2 inches of rain. A very strong Nor’easter is centered just east of Long Island, NY at the moment. This low will move over Nantucket tonight, before moving into the Maritimes by tomorrow morning. We will continue to see scattered rain showers through the evening, with patchy fog forming. Winds will continue to diminish, but we could still see wind gusts reach 30-35 mph. Look for lows tonight to be in the middle to upper 30’s.

As the low moves off into the Canadian Maritimes, scattered showers will end by the start of the work day. A weak high pressure ridge will move over Southern New England, allowing us to see some partial sunshine by the afternoon. We will warm up into the upper 40’s. Unfortunately, the ridge will quickly move off to the east by tomorrow night. This will allow a disturbance forming in the Great Lakes to bring more moisture back over New England. So, we will return to overcast skies by tomorrow night, with lows in the middle 30’s. That disturbance may form a weak low pressure center over Connecticut by Thursday morning, helping to form more showers during the late morning and afternoon hours. Showers will come to an end by the end of the evening commute. Skies will begin to clear Thursday night, with partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 30’s.

In lieu of the cold front moving through us, it will help bring colder air down from the north. An upper-level trough will stay over the eastern U.S., helping to bring our very mild temperatures return to seasonable conditions. So, we will keep mostly sunny skies for Friday, but high temperatures will be cooler, as the mercury only reaches the lower 40’s. We will keep clear to partly cloudy skies for Friday night, with lows in the upper 20’s. The weather remains calm during Saturday, staying with mostly sunny skies. Highs will reach the upper 30’s, with lows in the middle 20’s under partly cloudy skies.

A weak high pressure ridge will continue to keep us under cooler and drier conditions for the rest of the weekend. We finish off the weekend Sunday under mostly sunny conditions with highs in the upper 30’s. Lows will be in the middle 20’s under partly cloudy skies Sunday night.

Looking ahead to Monday, some moisture coming from the Great Lakes region will bring increasing clouds for Monday morning. However, the computer models disagree on how we receive this moisture. The American model wants to begin developing a strong low off of Cape Hatteras, NC in the early morning. The European model simply has a weak disturbance passing over us Monday morning, giving us the risk for some scattered showers. At the moment, it appears the models do agree to push the low away from the Northeast U.S. So, I will call for mostly cloudy skies for Monday, with highs in the middle to upper 30’s. Skies will clear Monday night, allowing for lows to fall into the lower 20’s. We will start off Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. A quick moving low out of Alberta, Canada may bring a few snow showers just after midnight Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Look for highs Tuesday to be in the middle 30’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.