RI Weather: Showers, With Sleet/Wet Snow Possible Monday Morning; Heavy Rain, Strong Winds Expected Monday Night

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 23, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Monday: Scattered rain showers after 2 a.m., but may mix with snow showers or sleet north of Providence. Precipitation becomes all rain by 10 a.m. Heavier rain is expected by 4 p.m. and winds will increase into the evening. Winds will come from the NE at 17-22 mph, and 25-30 mph during the overnight. Highs will be in the lower 40’s, with lows in the middle 30’s.
• Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times, especially during the morning. Patchy fog is expected. Highs in the upper 40’s. Rain tapers to showers through the late afternoon, before ending around midnight. Winds diminish to NNE 10-15 mph by the late afternoon. Patchy fog will continue into the overnight. Lows will be in the middle 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

At the moment, we are awaiting a very strong low pressure system, centered over western Georgia. The people already at Foxboro for the Patriots game is seeing light rain showers, as some moisture is coming off the ocean, thanks to northeast winds. Also, a weak low pressure system well south and east of Southern New England will provide us with a few showers during the overnight hours. North of Providence may even see a mix with some snow showers, or even with some sleet. Otherwise, no snowfall accumulation is expected. Overnight lows will fall into the middle 30’s.

As we move into Monday, we will see mostly rain showers across the state, although the activity will be scattered in the morning and afternoon hours. A secondary low forming off the coast of Virginia by the afternoon will bring heavier rainfall and stronger winds by the evening commute. Block Island will see the heaviest wind speeds, so a High Wind Watch is in place for the island from 9 a.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday. The heavier rainfall will continue through Monday night, so a Flood Watch has been put in place for the state from 1 p.m. Monday until 10 a.m. Tuesday. We will see the heaviest amounts Monday night into Tuesday morning. In fact, 1-3 inches is very possible during the timeframe. Although there will be no river flooding expected, do expect some urban and street flooding. The low’s center stays just south of Rhode Island through Tuesday, so expect rain through the entire daytime hours. The rain and winds will taper off into Tuesday evening, as the low slowly moves into the Gulf of Maine.

Skies will slowly clear during the overnight Tuesday, so we should see mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. A weak high pressure ridge will provide us with drier air, and temperatures will remain mild, as the mercury reaches the upper 40’s. A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, but very little moisture will be associated with it. So, expect partly cloudy skies, with lows in the upper 30’s. We might see increasing clouds Thursday morning, as some moisture south of the region will try to move over the area. In fact, the American model has rainfall about 200 miles south of us. So, I might have to add showers back into the forecast for Thursday. For now, I do not have enough sufficient information from the models to prove the activity will reach Southern New England. I will call for partly sunny skies Thursday, with temperatures in the middle 40’s. Weak high pressure ridging from the south will bring us back to partly cloudy skies Thursday night, with lows in the lower 30’s.

Thanks to a lot of lake effect snow showers across the Great Lakes, the moisture will move over New England, but the atmosphere will remain stable. So, I will call for partly sunny skies on Friday, with highs in the lower 40’s. Skies return to partly cloudy skies Friday night, with lows in the upper 20’s. Weak high pressure ridging will give us partly cloudy skies for Saturday. However, with an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S., temperatures will not be as mild as they have been the last couple of weeks. Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 30’s. Look for overcast skies Saturday night, with lows in the upper 20’s.

The computer models do agree on a developing area of low pressure forming over Southern New England or just off the coast of Massachusetts by Sunday morning. With enough moisture in our atmosphere, I can see us receiving some showers, especially by the early evening. So, I will call for showers and light rain after sunset, with highs in the upper 30’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.