RI Weather: Significant Snowfall Expected Thursday; A Foot Of Snow Possible

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 9, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Thursday: Wet snow starts around midnight, but snow becomes drier and fluffier by mid-morning. Moderate to heavy snow expected between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. with light to moderate snow after 5 p.m. White out conditions are possible, especially during the afternoon hours. All snow ends by 11 p.m. We will see between 6 to 11 inches of snow before it ends by 11 p.m. Expect blowing snow to continue into the evening hours. Winds will come from the N at 18-23 mph with gusts of 40 mph. Skies will slowly clear Thursday night, but wind chills may reach 0-5 below zero. Low temperatures will fall near 10 degrees.
• Friday: Mostly sunny and cold, with highs in the middle 20’s. Winds will come from the WNW at 11-4 mph. Increasing clouds expected by the mid-afternoon, with possible snow showers arriving before midnight. Lows will be in the middle teens.

Forecast Discussion:

I am always fascinated by the weather we can receive here in Southern New England. At the moment, we are seeing temperatures in the middle to upper 50’s! Then, by this time tomorrow, we will be about 30 degrees colder, with moderate snow blowing. Don’t you just love New England?

At the moment, we are awaiting an area of low pressure along a cold front to begin forming over northern Virginia this evening. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of Rhode Island from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Thursday. Parking bans and other cancellations are taken place as I am writing this discussion. To view the full list of parking bans and closings, click here.

Skies will be overcast after midnight, with the first snowflakes falling at the south coast around 4 a.m. It will start off as a mix of rain and snow here, but eventually will change over to all snow. Meanwhile, Providence will see its first flakes around 5 a.m. We will see light to moderate snow as the morning commute starts, and with moderate to heavy snow by mid-morning. Some parts of the state may see up to 2 inches of snow per hour in some snow bands. There may be some white out conditions during the afternoon, due to the strong winds and heavy snow bands. The snow bands will bring light to moderate snow after 4 p.m. before snow tapers to flurries after 8 p.m. The snow ends after 11 p.m., with slow clearing after midnight.

So, what can we expect for accumulations? Although it is quite difficult to figure out which parts of the state may see locally heavy snow bands, we anticipate the state seeing anywhere between 6 to 11 inches of snow once the storm ends Thursday night. Winds will still be breezy Thursday night, and with skies clearing, this will create radiational cooling. With several inches of snow on the ground, air temperatures will fall into the upper single digits. Add the winds, and the wind chill temperature will make it feel like 0-5 below zero.

High pressure ridging will move in for Friday, giving us mostly sunny skies. But, with fresh snowfall on the ground, the sun’s radiation will not be absorbed by the ground. So, it will remain cold, as highs only reach the middle 20’s. Wind chills will make it feel like upper single digits, especially in stronger wind gusts. However, we will see increasing clouds by the early afternoon, as another quick moving Alberta Clipper system brings some possible snow showers before midnight. Look for lows to be in the middle teens. As the frontal boundary stays just south of Rhode Island Saturday, snow showers should end by mid-morning. Another coating to an inch of snow is possible during this time. We may see a few peeks of sunshine during the afternoon. Look for high temperatures to reach the lower 30’s. By Saturday night, another quick moving low centered over Arkansas will bring the risk for more precipitation by early Sunday morning. Based on the temperatures, we may see some early snow showers by 4 a.m. Sunday morning. Lows will be in the upper 20’s, but a weak warm front will help raise our temperatures heading into Sunday morning.

Temperatures will be warming up throughout Sunday, so any snow showers will become plain rain showers after 10 a.m. Highs will be near 40. Looking over the computer models, that low will remain north and west of Rhode Island entering Sunday night. So, we will remain on the warm side of the system. This means any showers will remain rain showers through Sunday night. Low temperatures will only fall into the middle 30’s. The European and American model differ on how quickly the low’s center moves out of the Gulf of Maine Monday morning, with the European model being faster. I feel any rain showers will end by 10 a.m. Monday morning, with partly sunny skies by noon. Highs on Monday will reach the lower 40’s. Skies become partly cloudy by Monday night, and temperatures will be warmer, as lows only fall into the upper 20’s.

High pressure will give us mostly sunny skies for Tuesday, with highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the middle 20’s Tuesday night. There is the threat for some snow showers by late Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the middle 30’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.