RI Weather: Warm Temperatures End And Rain Arrives on Saturday; Sunny and Near Seasonable Temperatures Sunday

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on February 25, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Saturday: Patchy fog burns off by 10 a.m., but remaining overcast. Scattered showers expected by the early afternoon. Numerous showers expected by the evening. Look for highs in the lower 60’s, with SSE winds of 7-10 mph. Rain and even an isolated thunderstorm expected through the overnight, with lows in the upper 30’s.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the middle 40’s. Winds will be breezy coming from the WNW at 12-15 mph. Clear skies expected Sunday night, with lows in the upper 20’s.

Forecast Discussion:

Here in the Ocean State, most of us have been opening our doors and windows, as we are literally sweating to the above normal temperatures. After reaching a record high 66 degrees on Thursday, T.F. Green Airport was just one degree away from breaking Friday’s high temperature record. The airport in Warwick reached 71 degrees today. The above normal temperatures will continue for one more day, before a cold front helps bring back our temperatures back to more normal conditions to end February.

As we move into this evening, the warm temperatures and higher dewpoints will help create some patchy fog. This fog will continue into the middle of Saturday morning. Clouds will begin to increase this evening, with overcast skies through the day. Scattered showers will begin to pop up by the mid-afternoon, with heavier precipitation expected by the evening and overnight hours. A cold front will then pass through, and it will bring colder air into the region behind it. Low temperatures Saturday night will fall into the middle 30’s. Showers will end around sunrise, with skies clearing. We will see mostly sunny weather for Sunday, but temperatures will be about 20-25 degrees colder, as highs only reach the middle 40’s. It will also be breezy, with west-northwest winds of 12-15 mph. So, it will feel a little colder to our bodies than the actual air temperature. High pressure over the Southeast U.S. will keep us clear skies Sunday night, with lows in the upper 20’s.

The high will continue to influence our weather as kids once again return to school after a long vacation. They will see mostly sunny skies with highs near 50 degrees. The high will give us partly cloudy skies Monday night, with lows in the middle 30’s. By Tuesday, we will begin to see overcast skies by Tuesday morning, as moisture moves up from the north. A low pressure system developing in the Southeast U.S. will bring a round of showers and rain to us by the early afternoon. With a warm front moving into the region, high temperatures will reach the lower 50’s. Showers will lighten through the overnight, becoming more scattered, with lows falling into the upper 30’s.

There will be a slight lull in the precipitation Wednesday morning, as we await another low pressure system coming from the Great Lakes. The showers will return before noon, with the cold front passing through Rhode Island by the evening commute. The precipitation may become heavier after 3 p.m., with heavier rain bands just ahead of the cold front. Look for highs temperatures to reach the upper 40’s. The computer models begin to diverge from each other after Wednesday night’s forecast.

The American model gives us showers and rain into Wednesday night, with the low moving away from us Thursday morning. But, the European model almost stalls the low’s center just off of Cape Cod, meaning we would see more rain Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. At this time, I do not see any blocking patterns over the eastern Atlantic, and there is no high pressure system nor cold air over eastern Canada to help hold a low in place. So, I will go with the American model, and call for mostly sunny skies on Thursday. Look for highs in the upper 40’s. We will keep clear skies for Thursday night, with lows near 30. We will see partly sunny skies next Friday, as a low pressure system moves over Northern New England. Showers will remain north of us, but we will see some cloud cover from this system. Look for highs in the upper 30’s, as a quick moving upper level trough moves over the Northeast U.S.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.