Severe thunderstorms possible into Monday evening; cooler, less humid weather arrives Tuesday night; heat wave for weekend?

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on July 19, 2016

We have another hot and humid day over Rhode Island, as many observing posts are showing temperatures in the lower 90’s inland. Also, I am watching a line of strong thunderstorms approach from the west. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of Rhode Island until 8 p.m. tonight. Look for possible strong wind gusts, small hail, heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning. Some roads may become flooded due to heavy rainfall, so please take caution. The best chance to see these storms will be between 4 and 7 p.m. We may see more showers and thunderstorms this evening, as a strong cold front passes through the state. Expect lows this evening to only fall into the lower 70’s.

For Tuesday, high pressure sweeping down from the Great Lakes will dry our skies, with the sun returning once again. However, you will notice the air being a little drier. We will lose some of the humidity, thanks in part to northwest winds. Temperatures will slightly cooler as well, with highs reaching the middle 80’s. Our coolest night will be tomorrow night, as low temperatures fall into the upper 50’s. We will be able to give our fans and air conditioners a small break during this evening. On Wednesday, the high will move over Long Island by the afternoon. We will keep the sunny skies, but temperatures will only reach the lower 80’s. Winds, however, will begin to switch from the northwest to the southwest. We will see clear skies and light winds Wednesday night, with lows reaching the lower 60’s.

As we head into Thursday, southwest winds will begin to help bring moisture back up from the south and into Southern New England. High temperatures will increase into the middle to upper 80’s, and the humidity will begin to rise once again. We will keep hazy sunshine in the forecast, with partly cloudy skies Thursday night. We will need to start up the air conditioning once again, as overnight lows only fall into the upper 60’s. By Friday, we will see partly sunny skies by the late afternoon, as a low pressure system passes over eastern Canada. At this moment, the models predict any rainfall will stay over Northern New England. But, there is the chance for some passing showers and thunderstorms from 6 p.m. until 3 a.m. Saturday morning. Otherwise, we will keep mostly cloudy skies Friday night. Temperatures will be quite hot, with highs Friday reaching the lower to middle 90’s. Overnight lows Friday night will only fall into the lower 70’s.

So, we will have one day of temperatures above 90, starting on Friday. But, what about the weekend? Well, the upper level forecast shows an upper level ridge slowly moving over the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow warmer air from the south to move further north. This is reflected in Saturday’s forecast, as the models are showing high temperatures in the middle 90’s. With the added humidity, heat indexes could reach 100 degrees. There is the slight chance some inland areas may see highs in the upper 90’s. Please take extra precautions if you will be outside for any length of time. With partly to mostly sunny skies expected, you can easily suffer from heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Keep yourself hydrated at all times, and wear protective clothing like hats or caps to help block the sun. We will see increasing clouds Saturday night, as a low pressure passes into Quebec, Canada. We may see scattered showers and thunderstorms into Sunday morning. Any precipitation will end by the mid-morning. Low temperatures Saturday night will only fall into the lower 70’s.

So, that makes two days where temperatures are predicted to go over 90 degrees. Is it possible a heat wave is coming to Rhode Island? It is very possible at the moment, as the computer models are forecasting high temperatures to reach the middle 90’s. With the low slowly moving to the northeast, we will only see partial sunshine on Sunday. A weak wave of low pressure over Pennsylvania Sunday night could give us showers and thunderstorms, before ending by about 7 a.m. next Monday morning. Overnight lows Sunday night will fall into the lower 70’s. For next Monday, we will see partly sunny skies. With winds coming from the north-northwest, our predicted heat wave will come to an end, as I am forecasting high temperatures in the middle to upper 80’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.