RI Weather Forecast: Bracing for Major Nor'easter Tuesday

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on March 12, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW will shift SSE at 5-8 mph. Cloudy skies into midnight, with lows in the lower 20’s.
• Tuesday: Snow begins between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m. We transition from light to heavy snow quickly. By 9-10 a.m., winds will increase from the south coast northward. Snowfall of 1-3 inches per hours is possible, along with winds of 25-40 mph with gusts as high as 55 mph, especially along the south coast. This may cause blizzard conditions, with visibility less than a quarter-mile. Total accumulations for the entire state is forecast to be 12-18 inches. However, northern Rhode Island, from Warwick north, could possibly see 18-24 inches, depending on the track of the storm. Continue monitoring my Rhode Island Patch colleagues for further updates.

See below for Q&A on Winter Storm Stella

Forecast Discussion:

Over the last few days, I have been trying to keep track of all the computer models, and wondering which models were right, and which models were not forecasting correctly. As of Thursday, I knew that the American GFS model and the European model were in extremely good agreement of a major potential snowstorm hitting all of New England. Now, it is definitely coming into fruition.

I will not go into the rest Monday’s forecast. It will be sunny and warmer on Monday. I will put my full attention into Tuesday’s weather. Instead of a weather discussion, let’s do a simple question and answer format:

“So, what kind of watches and warnings are in effect right now?” At the moment, Northwest and Southeast Providence County, Kent, and Bristol Counties are under a Winter Storm Watch. This means these areas have the potential of seeing 6 or more inches of snow. It will go into effect at 5 a.m. Tuesday, and last until 6 a.m. Wednesday. Meanwhile, a Blizzard Watch is in effect for Washington and Newport Counties, from 5 a.m. Tuesday until 6 a.m. Wednesday. A Blizzard Watch consists of winds gusting as high as 55 mph, with visibility a quarter mile or less, due to snow falling or blowing and drifting snow.

“Will these watches/warnings change?” I would not be surprised if these watches/warnings are upgraded in the next 24-36 hours. The National Weather Service will feel more confident in the storm’s track by Monday afternoon.

“When is the snow going to start?” At this time, the models agree we will begin to see snowfall between the times of 5 and 7 a.m. The snow will quickly become heavy a few hours later.

“How strong will the winds be during the storm?” The winds will increase quickly, and maintain throughout the day and into the evening. We can see winds of 25-35 mph north of Providence, and 30-45 mph south of Providence. Gusts could reach up to 55 mph at times. The area most likely to have the strongest winds will be the south coast.

“Will there be power outages?” The best chance to see power outages will be on the southern side of the state. Between gale winds and storm force gusts, and the heavy snow that does settle on any power lines, this will only increase the risk. Just make sure you check your batteries and flashlights/lanterns, charge your cell phones and tablets, and look through your first aid kit for anything you might need, or if anything expired.

And, finally, here’s the million dollar question…

“HOW MUCH SNOW ARE WE GETTING?” I only put this question in caps because I think I have heard it from every person who knows I’m a meteorologist. Here’s what I can tell you: the computer models do agree that AT LEAST 12 inches of snow will fall. However, despite being less than 48 hours away, it is still dependent on the low’s track. If the track makes the low’s center move further north or west, the south coast would see more of a rain/snow mix or be just plain rain. This is what will happen for Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, along with the Cape. This area will only see 4-8 inches. From New Bedford to Plymouth, this line will see 8-12 inches. Finally, for everyone else, the range will be 12-18 inches. But, due to the fact we may see some convective snow bands, or the track of the low moves further east, totals for northern Rhode Island and northern Bristol County in Massachusetts could go as high as 18-24 inches.

Well, there you go. Now, we will have some time to clean ourselves out. Light snow will continue into Wednesday morning, and winds will begin to diminish. Look for lows to fall into the lower 20’s. Snow showers will continue to persist into Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, expect overcast skies with highs near freezing. Any snow showers and flurries end by midnight. We will keep mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night, with lows near 20.

We finally return back to mostly sunny skies for Thursday, as high pressure moves south out of Canada and into the Ohio River Valley. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30’s. We will hold on to partly cloudy skies Thursday night, with lows in the upper teens. We will see some sunshine during Friday morning, with increasing clouds by the mid-afternoon. Highs will reach the middle 30’s. However, the computer models do disagree on how to handle a low pressure system over the Great Lakes Friday night.

The American model keeps us under a high pressure ridge for most of the overnight, as well as into most of Saturday. So, we would see partly to mostly sunny conditions. But, the European model pushes the high pressure system into the Atlantic, weakening the ridge faster. Then, that same low in the Great Lakes rushes over us Friday evening. We would have the chance at more light snow into Saturday morning. The low would then bring the risk for a rain/snow mix if it stays further north. However, the low remains well south of us, meaning the risk for more snowfall. The American model, however, keeps the low south of us, and intensifies off the coast of North Carolina into Saturday and next Sunday. For now, I will call for the risk for some light snow Friday night into Saturday, as the European model has been handling the long range forecast slightly better than the American model. Lows Friday night will be in the lower 20’s, with highs Saturday in the middle 30’s. We return to mostly sunny skies for next Sunday, with highs in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.