2016 South Carolina Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton Favored

COLUMBIA, SC – Hillary Clinton is ramping up campaign efforts in South Carolina, the first of a string of racially diverse states in the Deep South that she is counting on to stop Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who hopes to siphon off younger voters from the former secretary of state’s “firewall” of support among non-whites.

South Carolina Democrats vote Saturday in the second half of the Palmetto State’s presidential primary. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Last weekend, real estate tycoon Donald Trump handily won the Republican contest.

Clinton has a 24-point lead over Sanders in South Carolina, according to a Real Clear Politics polling average. Analyst Nate Silver said on his FiveThirtyEight blog that Sanders has a less than 1 percent chance of winning South Carolina.

Sanders hasn’t formally surrendered South Carolina, but he has been campaigning heavily in Super Tuesday states and others that will vote in March.

He’s assured at least some of South Carolina’s 59 delegates under the rules of the Democratic Party, which apportions delegates in its nominating primaries and caucuses according to their share of the popular vote.

But in the end, it might not matter much for Sanders, even though he’s done well against Clinton in early contests, especially in New Hampshire, where he romped after a near photo finish in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses. Clinton easily won the Nevada caucuses last weekend, 53 percent to 47 percent.

In pledged delegates, Clinton and Sanders are in a virtual dead heat, 52-51, respectively, heading into Saturday’s primary. The nominee needs 2,383 delegates to win.

The Democratic socialist candidate has predicted he will have pulled off a historic political upset by the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia July 25-28, but political observers say that’s not likely to happen.

The reason: Superdelegates — unelected party insider delegates who may support whomever they choose at the national convention — swell Clinton’s delegate count to 502, compared with 70 for Sanders.

The superdelegates, part of the Democratic Party’s nominating process since 1984, are a huge source of contention among Sanders supporters, who claim the process is rigged in favor of establishment candidates.

They exist, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz told CNN, “to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don’t have to be in a position where they are running against grassroots activists.”

Because of the way delegates are apportioned, Sanders needs landslide wins in the remaining primaries just to catch up and a change of heart by the superdelegates to win the nomination.

Some Sanders supporters are lobbying superdelegates who have committed to support Clinton at the national convention in an attempt to get them to change their minds.

“I’m sick and tired of them,” Cordelia Lewis-Burks, a superdelegate from Indiana, said of the Sanders backers in an interview with the Associated Press.

“It’s very aggravating to be bashed on my own computer by these people who it’s probably the first time they’ve ever voted,” Lewis-Burks said. “I’ve been in the trenches since I was 20.”

THE VOTE SO FAR

• Nevada Republican Caucus Results: Donald Trump Wins
• 2016 Nevada Democratic Caucuses: Hillary Clinton Handily Defeats Bernie Sanders
• 2016 South Carolina GOP Primary Totals: Donald Trump Wins; Jeb Bush Drops Out
• NH Primary Recap: Outsiders Break In
• Iowa Caucus Results: Cruz Wins GOP, Trump Stumbles, Dems Draw

After South Carolina, the next tests are in Southern state-dominated Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, which combined will award 1,034 delegates. If she can keep Sanders from poking holes in her firewall, Clinton could wrap up the nomination by next week.

“She could effectively end the race … on Super Tuesday,” David Wasserman, a top analyst for The Cook Political Report, told The New York Times.

The Sanders camp isn’t conceding yet, though.

“The Clintons can get a delegate lead quicker than we can, and they have a way to gut out the delegate fight,” Tad Devine, a Sanders senior adviser told The Times. “We have to turn victories in state after state into big momentum that can change the numbers.”

» Photos by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons