Trump Slips With Hours Before South Carolina Primary: Poll

As Donald Trump continues to confound political observers with a largely unfiltered, uncensored presidential campaign, new South Carolina poll numbers released Friday show the bombastic real estate tycoon may have more to worry about than whether Pope Francis thinks he’s a Christian.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, released just hours before South Carolina Republicans vote in their party’s presidential primary Saturday, shows Trump’s support slid 5 points from a comfortable 16-point lead in January.

The poll, which had an error margin of 3.6 percent, showed Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely Republican primary voters, compared with 23 percent for Cruz, 15 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and 13 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Also on Saturday, Nevada Democrats will decide what appears to be a razor thin race between former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont — a repeat of a near-tie in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses that revealed an ideological split in the Democratic party and a more difficult nomination path for Clinton than anyone expected.

Both Nevada and South Carolina schedule Republican and Democratic caucuses and primaries on different dates. Nevada Republicans will caucus on Tuesday, Feb. 23, and South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary is Saturday, Feb. 27.

Pope Talk Could Bump Trump

In a CNN Republican town hall meeting in South Carolina Thursday, Trump was unapologetic for getting into a fight with Pope Francis after the pontiff said Trump “is not a Christian” because of grand plans to have Mexico pay for a wall on the U.S. border and a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.

The dustup isn’t expected to hurt Trump much and may actually help him. His fieriest immigration remarks have been followed by a corresponding rise in the polls.

A second place finish would keep Cruz’s campaign alive, but a third place finish could be deadly — and prophetic, given the post-Iowa Caucus performances of Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

South Carolina could also be the end of the line for Rubio, Bush, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, though Kasich’s surprise second-place showing in New Hampshire could add some life to his campaign.

Clinton Needs Breakout Win

Clinton’s campaign is looking for a breakout moment in South Carolina. Sanders’ upstart White House campaign scored a 22-point triumph in New Hampshire and, before that, nearly toppled Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucuses on Feb. 1.

Sanders, who did well among young, liberal, white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, has a more difficult climb in South Carolina, where the primary offers the first true test of Democratic candidates’ strength among black voters.

Clinton’s lead in South Carolina has been shrinking since mid-November as Sanders makes inroads into the so-called Clinton firewall of African-American voters, but she’s still out polling Sanders by about 24 points in the Palmetto state, according to a RealClearPolitics average.

Clinton figures to win in South Carolina, but what happens in the Nevada caucuses Saturday could change either candidate’s momentum.

Sanders Recruits Latino Millennials

Polls show support among likely Nevada caucus-goers shaping up much as it did in Iowa earlier this month, with an almost even split, though Clinton has a slim 2.4 point advantage, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Though trailing in South Carolina, Sanders is looking for a more receptive electorate in Nevada, where he’s recruiting some of the young Latino voters who make up about 44 percent of Nevada’s millennials.

Many of those newcomers to the process told Vox.com their interest in the election was fueled by curiosity about the renegade candidate promising to fix a political system they think is broken, too. To them, Sanders campaign Nevada state director Joan Kato told Vox.com, Sanders is “someone who’s always fought for equality and making sure the average person is not taken advantage of.”

In Clinton’s favor in Nevada is that despite its high minority population, voters aren’t especially liberal. In his FiveThirtyEight.com blog, Nate Silver said Nevada is “a state that Clinton ‘should’ win.”

“Conversely,” Silver said, “a Sanders win would be a sign he has staying power.”