Coronavirus In Texas: Here's When Illness Could Peak

The coronavirus pandemic could take as many as nearly 8,000 lives in Texas over the next four months and, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The projections show a range of deaths that could occur in the state (anywhere between 1,314 to 7,772) by Aug. 4.

The Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, based its analysis on observed death rates. The analysis found that in the U.S., demand for ventilators and ICU beds will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as mid-April.

For the United States as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 15, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 61,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive-care beds for such patients would fall shorty by just over 15,000. Researchers based the estimates on excess demand on hospital systems on the assumption that all states adopt social distancing measures, even those that have not already done so.

Nationwide deaths on that date will be nearly 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 82,000 by Aug. 4. The range of outcomes for deaths on April 15 is anywhere between 1,180 to 3,488 and by Aug. 4 the range of outcomes is from anywhere between 39,174 to 141,955 deaths.

The analysis is being updated routinely as conditions change.

Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the institute, wrote, “Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies.

“The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

In Texas, the institute projects the infection rate to peak on May 2.

On that peak date, deaths are expected to total anywhere between 31-191, and between 1,314 and 7,772 Texas residents could die by Aug. 4, the institute said.

In making projections for the states, the institute took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.

In Texas, there is no statewide "stay-at-home" order that has been adopted by many states, however several individual localities have implemented such orders on the local level. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the statewide closures of schools, bars, restaurants on March 19 and the order in effect until at least April 13.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, on Sunday warned that the novel coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths.

Speaking on CNN's "State of the Union," Fauci said that based on what he's seeing, the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," said Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noting that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."