VA Experts Worry Coronavirus Variant Could Send Cases Soaring

VIRGINIA — A continued drop in the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations is good news for Virginia, but experts with the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute worry that will change in the next month with numbers nearly doubling.

The cause for concern by researchers at the institute is the expected arrival of more contagious variants of the coronavirus in Virginia. The variant has been identified in 20 states, including Maryland and Pennsylvania, the institute's report released Friday said.

If the more contagious variant becomes dominant in Virginia, which the experts expect by March, the state could have a 10-week sustained peak of more than 65,000 new weekly COVID-19 cases from late February to late April, the latest institute model said.

By comparison, Virginia had about 50,000 new cases during the entire month of November. "These sustained high rates could place unprecedented pressure on Virginia's health resources," the U.VA experts wrote."Additionally, high case counts increase the risk that new, and perhaps more concerning, variants to emerge."

The Virginia Department of Health reported 4,904 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, a drop from 4,147 on Friday. The state's seven-day average of cases now stands at 5,609, down from Monday's peak of 6,166.

A total of 468,655 coronavirus cases have been reported in the state; 20,654 hospitalizations have been recorded as of Saturday. To date, a total of 6,079 deaths have been caused by COVID-19.

A surge in COVID-19 cases that strains Virginia hospitals is not inevitable, the institute said.

By decreasing spread now, Virginians can reduce the opportunity for variants to take hold in the state, lower the strain on the health-care system, and lower the risk of new variants emerging.

"Many Virginians heeded warnings over the holidays, and the post holiday surge has not been as bad as feared," the institute's report said."If we continue to do our part, we can give time for vaccinations, and lower transmission expected with warmer weather, to reduce the risks associated with (variants.) Do your part to stop the spread. Continue to follow prevention best practices and get vaccinated when eligible."

Current COVID-19 hospitalizations are slightly down in recent days. As of Saturday, there are 2,927 patients, including 567 in the intensive care units and 320 on ventilators. There are 1,024 ventilators in use in hospitals across the state, which represents 35 percent of capacity.

Vaccinations expanded to a larger segment of the population two weeks ago. Residents should check to see when Phase 1b begins in their community on the VDH COVID-19 Vaccine webpage.

To date, 393,613 Virginians have received at least one vaccine dose and 50,147 people have been fully vaccinated, according to the Virginia Department of Health. To date, 1,010,150 total doses have been distributed in the state.

Death data is available as both the date of report and by date of death and are updated as amendments to the death records as they are received by VDH.

Below are the latest coronavirus data updates for our coverage area on Saturday:

• Alexandria: 9,021 cases, 483 hospitalizations, 101 deaths; an increase of 34 cases, 29 hospitalizations, 10 deaths
• Arlington County: 11,093 cases, 714 hospitalizations, 196 deaths; an increase of 1,096 cases, 43 hospitalizations, 11 deaths
• Fairfax County: 56,139 cases, 3,190 hospitalizations, 753 deaths; an increase of 7,040 cases, 122 hospitalizations, 46 deaths
• Fairfax City: 391 cases, 25 hospitalizations, 10 deaths; an increase of 64 cases, 2 hospitalizations
• Falls Church: 258 cases, 18 hospitalizations, six deaths; an increase of 50 cases
• Loudoun County: 18,151 cases, 723 hospitalizations, 171 deaths; an increase of 2,783 cases, 55 hospitalizations, 7 deaths
• Manassas: 3,516 cases, 152 hospitalizations, 32 deaths; an increase of 411 cases, 4 hospitalizations, 3 deaths
• Manassas Park: 1,056 cases, 66 hospitalizations, eight deaths; an increase of 70 cases, 1 hospitalization
• Prince William County: 33,048 cases, 1,290 hospitalizations, 285 deaths; an increase of 4,777 cases, 34 hospitalizations, 21 deaths
• Fredericksburg: 1,154 cases, 72 hospitalizations, 14 deaths; an increase of 231 cases, 5 hospitalizations, 3 deaths
• Spotsylvania County: 6,551 cases, 235 hospitalizations, 78 deaths; an increase of 1,143 cases, 13 hospitalizations, 7 deaths
• Stafford County: 7,169 cases, 262 hospitalizations, 42 deaths; an increase of 1,197 cases, 22 hospitalizations, 13 deaths

VDH estimates it will take weeks to months to vaccine Virginians in phase 1b, with an estimated 1.2 eligible Virginians. The federal government allocates around 110,000 doses of vaccine to Virginia each week. That supply could increase gradually over the next few months depending on manufacturer capabilities.

Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines require two doses; Pfizer's doses should be taken 21 days apart, and Moderna's doses should be 28 days apart.