Vaccine Offers Promise 1 Year After 1st Coronavirus Case: Northam

VIRGINIA — On Tuesday, Gov. Ralph Northam acknowledged the one-year mark of Virginia's first COVID-19 case and death while expressing optimism about vaccinations ultimately bringing the pandemic-related precautions to end.

Virginia's first COVID-19 case had been reported on Fort Belvoir in Fairfax County on March 7, 2020, while the state's first known death was reported on March 14, 2020 in James City County. Since then, Virginia has seen 588,129 cumulative COVID-19 cases and 9,790 deaths. Northam, who first introduced coronavirus restrictions in March 2020, recognized the impact of the pandemic on people who lost loved ones, as well as those who lost jobs or income and face continued uncertainty.

"A year ago this week, we had our first known case of COVID and our first known death, and it has been a tough year for everyone," said Northam. "But we're now in what we hope is the final phase of this pandemic, and the future really does look hopeful."

As the governor noted, cases are trending down while vaccination numbers are going up. To date, 1,540,149 people have received at least one vaccine dose in Virginia, or 18 percent of Virginia's 8.5 million population. There are 850,774 people fully vaccinated, or about 10 percent of the population. The state is averaging 50,877 doses administered per day, above the long-term goal Northam set in January.

Northam believes a "small step forward" is new interim guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that fully vaccinated people can gather indoors without masks or physical distancing. But he said herd immunity is the goal for allowing life to get back to normal.

Until then, he encourages continuing mask wearing, physical distancing and washing hands.

"I'm asked every day multiple times a day when will we be able to return to normal? When will we be able to take these masks off? The answer to that really is as a general statement is when we reach herd immunity, and the reason that's so important the virus needs hosts such as myself and all individuals to survive," said Northam.

"It also needs hosts to mutate, which it's doing right now. And so this is why it's so important to continue the guidelines that we're following, the wearing the masks, the keeping social distancing and to get as many people as we can vaccinated," the governor said. "Once we get to that herd immunity, the virus will not be able to survive in our environment and will be behind us."

Dr. Danny Avula, the state's vaccine coordinator, believes milestones for vaccinations will come by the end of April and May as supply increases.

Virginia is expecting about 188,000 first doses and 160,000 to 170,000 second doses from Modern and Pfizer in the upcoming week. Virginia's initial allocation of Johnson & Johnson doses is about 69,000 doses, but the federal government doesn't expect the next Johnson & Johnson shipment until the week of March 29. That week's shipment could be around 100,000 doses, Avula said.

"That will really be the time where our access and our supply really increases. It will be the time where not only are we fueling these continued large mass events, but hospitals are getting more and more, private providers and pharmacies will also be getting more and more," said Avula.

"So I think all of that really puts us on a trajectory to really be able to meet the demand for the 1b group by the second or third week of April and really meet what the president said last week, is that all Americans will be able to get vaccinated, at least with their first dose, by the end of May," Avula added. "And I would say we're probably going to be a little bit ahead of that schedule in Virginia for everybody who wants to get vaccinated."

Northam praised health districts which have made progress vaccinating those aged 65 and older and have started to vaccinate other phase 1b groups, including people with underlying conditions. He highlighted three health districts in the far southwest — Mount Rogers, Cumberland and Lenowisco — for starting vaccinations for people with underlying conditions at the beginning of March.

Next week, the state's first of the community vaccine clinics supported by $179 million in FEMA money will be held in Danville, Petersburg and Portsmouth. Northam noted these are large-scale events with the capacity to vaccinate several hundred to several thousand per day. Events will only be open to people on the state health department's preregistration list who are invited to schedule appointments.

Curtis Brown with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management said selection was based on locations with large sites that were publicly accessible and are close to vulnerable populations. Additional sites are expected in the next two to three weeks, and Brown says up to 13 could be done in a three-month period.

Any Virginian can preregister for the vaccine regardless of eligibility at vaccinate.virginia.gov, and those with language or computer accessibility barriers can call the hotline at 877-829-4682.

Fairfax Health District residents should continue using the local health department's form.

Northam encouraged residents to ensure their preregistration information is up to date in the statewide vaccine registration system. That includes age, address and accurate contact information. The governor also asked residents to answer their phone, as local health departments may contact people by phone to schedule appointments.

Vaccinations of school staff and reopening schools

Last week, President Joe Biden said states should prioritize K-12 teachers and staff, as well as child care staff for vaccinations, but Virginia has been prioritizing teachers as one of the first essential worker groups in phase 1b since January.

Northam said school districts have reported two-thirds of staff have at least one vaccine dose and nearly 40 percent are fully vaccinated.

"We are continuing to prioritize vaccinating teachers and school staff, and we're encouraging pharmacies in the Federal Pharmacy Partnership to prioritize teachers, as well," said Northam. "While vaccinating teachers isn't essential to offering in-person learning, it certainly helps that effort."

Last month, the governor called on all Virginia school districts to offer some form of in-person learning by March 15. At that time, 30 school districts were fully virtual, representing about a third of the state's school districts.

Now more school districts are transitioning to some form of in-person learning, and all school divisions have submitted plans to the state for in-person learning. James Lane, Virginia's superintendent of public instruction, said all but few will have some in-person instruction by March 15, and the last school district will start in-person learning on April 12.

Lane also noted many school districts in hybrid instruction with two in-person days per week are also transiting to four in-person days per week later this month. According to Virginia Department of Education data, 31 school divisions currently offer four or more in-person days per week, 48 have partial in-person (four days for typically younger grades), 33 are all hybrid and nine are partial hybrid. There are 11 remaining fully remote.

COVID-19 data

On Tuesday, 1,537 additional coronavirus cases were reported by the Virginia Department of Health, including 295 in Northern Virginia. The statewide seven-day average of daily cases is 1,367, and the cumulative total of cases is 588,129. There were 107 new deaths reported Tuesday, bringing the cumulative death total to 9,790.

Current hospitalizations stand at 1,171 statewide, including 244 in the intensive care units and 149 on ventilators. Northern Virginia has 225 current COVID-19 patients.

Statewide, ventilator use among all hospital patients is at 30 percent capacity, and ICU occupancy is at 76 percent, according to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association. The 2019 average for ICU occupancy was 67 percent.

The seven-day average of positive PCR tests stands at 5.8 percent statewide as of March 5, down from a peak of 17.4 percent on Jan. 3. Northern Virginia's regional average is also 5.8 percent. An average of 19,210 daily PCR testing encounters were reported statewide on March 5, down from a peak of 35,030 on Jan. 14.

Below are the latest coronavirus data updates for our coverage area from Monday to Tuesday:

• Alexandria: 10,468 cases, 516 hospitalizations, 126 deaths; increase of 12 cases and two hospitalizations
• Arlington County: 13,481 cases, 777 hospitalizations, 240 deaths; increase of 25 cases and one death
• Fairfax County: 67,945 cases, 3,567 hospitalizations, 1,025 deaths; increase of 125 cases, eight hospitalizations and 13 deaths
• Fairfax City: 501 cases, 39 hospitalizations, 16 deaths; increase of two cases, one hospitalization and one death
• Falls Church: 360 cases, 20 hospitalizations, nine deaths; one case removed
• Loudoun County: 23,589 cases, 882 hospitalizations, 259 deaths; increase of 56 cases, one hospitalization and five deaths
• Manassas: 4,054 cases, 163 hospitalizations, 41 deaths; increase of four cases
• Manassas Park: 1,129 cases, 66 hospitalizations, 12 deaths; no changes
• Prince William County: 40,055 cases, 1,438 hospitalizations, 458 deaths; increase of 72 cases, 16 hospitalizations, and four deaths
• Fredericksburg: 1,798 cases, 93 hospitalizations, 22 deaths; increase of two cases
• Spotsylvania County: 8,472 cases, 284 hospitalizations, 103 deaths; increase of 27 cases
• Stafford County: 9,715 cases, 321 hospitalizations, 69 deaths; increase of 28 cases, one hospitalization and one death