Community Corner
Coronavirus Spread In Issaquah: What Is Your Risk Of Exposure?
If you're around others, what are the chances you'll be exposed to the virus? Researchers have developed a new risk assessment tool.
ISSAQUAH, WA — One of Washington's new coronavirus restrictions is a total ban on holding indoor social gatherings with people from outside your household, unless involved parties can quarantine or get tested before the event.
Now, a new tool developed by researchers from several universities from across the country shows exactly how dangerous those indoor gatherings can be.
The COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool shows the estimated chance — between 0 and 100 percent — that you'll encounter at least one person with the coronavirus at an event in your county. You can reduce the risk by wearing a mask, distancing and gathering outdoors in smaller groups, researchers said. Washington's recent batch of restrictions urges residents to only gather outdoors, and in groups of five or fewer people.
Related: New Coronavirus Restrictions Begin Monday Night In Washington
As of Monday, if you were to attend an event with 15 people in King County, there would be a 14 percent chance that someone at the event would have the virus, according to the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool. If you hang out with ten people, the chance drops to 10 percent.
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Two Georgia Institute of Technology professors led the creation of the project, and their team included researchers from Stanford University and the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory.
"By default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported," the research team said in a statement. "In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher."
>> Access the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool here.
A 10 percent chance of to be exposed to the coronavirus at your small Thanksgiving celebration may not seem like a huge risk at first, but if one in ten Thanksgiving parties becomes an outbreak, the damage would be incalculable. The recent surge in new COVID-19 infections across the state has health officials worried that hospitals will soon run out of beds, and the pandemic will overrun the state's medical system.
"During the past two weeks, the number of cases reported each day in our state has more than doubled, from about 1,000 cases reported per day to about 2,200 cases reported per day," Dr. Kathy Lofy, the state health officer, said. "If that doubling time continues, in two more weeks, we'll be seeing over 4,000 cases per day. Especially concerning is that during the past week, the number of patients currently in our hospitals with COVID-19 increased about 40 percent, from 401 on Nov. 6 to 566 on Nov. 13."
Acting before hospitals become overburdened is essential, Lofy said. Once hospitals are full, treating even routine patients will become a much more difficult problem, according to health officials.
"We are in as dangerous a position today as we were in March. We're in a period of what's called "exponential growth" and every single day matters," said Gov. Inslee in a televised address Thursday night. "We cannot wait until our hospitals' halls are lined with gurneys waiting for rooms, before we take decisive action."
Read more: Inslee Asks Washington To Stay Home For The Holidays
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