Hurricane Hermine Florida Landfall Draws Closer; May Swing Up East Coast

NEW PORT RICHEY, FL — Hurricane Hermine held strength and speed late Thursday evening as she neared Florida's Big Bend area. The storm is the fourth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the first one expected to strike Florida in nearly 11 years.

The National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Hermine was located about 40 miles east of Apalachicola at 11 p.m. Thursday. Hermine was packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, an intensification from earlier in the afternoon. The storm was moving north-northeast at 14 mph.

The "eye of Hermine should make landfall in the new few hours," the hurricane center wrote in its 11 p.m. Thursday update. "Life-threatening surge and flooding rains expected."

Hermine will be the first hurricane in Florida since 2005's deadly Hurricane Wilma made landfall in the Sunshine State.

As of Thursday night, tropical storm force winds were extending outward from the storm up to 185 miles to the northeast and southeast of the center, forecasters say. Hurricane force winds were extending outward up to 45 miles from the center, forecasters said.

Storm surge is a real concern as Hurricane Hermine approaches Florida's shores. Forecasters say the surge combined with the tide poses the "danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key."

The hurricane center reports that water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak storm surge happens at the time of high tide:

• Destin to Indian Pass - 1 to 3 feet
• Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River - 4 to 7 feet
• Yankee town to Aripeka - 4 to 7 feet
• Aripeka to Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay - 2 to 4 feet
• Longboat Key to Bonita Beach - 1 to 3 feet
• Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia - 1 to 3 feet

On its present track, Hurricane Hermine is expected to cut across northern Florida Friday before heading toward Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as a tropical storm. Hermine is also projected to have an impact on Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey over the Labor Day weekend.

In advance of the storm’s arrival, a number of watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane warnings have gone up from Suwannee River to Mexico Beach. Tropical storm warnings are also in place for Anclote River to Suwannee River, west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line and Marineland, Florida, to Surf City, North Carolina, on the east coast. As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the hurricane center extended the tropical storm watch north from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds. Warnings are issued when conditions are expected to arrive within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch is also in place for Anclote River to Suwanee River and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line. A tropical storm watch has also gone up from north of Surf City or Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound, as well. At 5 p.m. Thursday, the hurricane center extended the tropical storm watch area to include the area north of Duck, North Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. This includes the Chesapeake Bay area from Smith Point south and southern Delaware Bay. Watches indicate hazardous weather conditions are possible within 48 hours.

As the 1 p.m. Thursday update from the hurricane center, the tropical storm warning had been extended south along Florida's west coast to Englewood, including the Tampa Bay area. It was also extended south along the east coast to include the Flagler and Volusia county line.

As the storm approaches, the entire Tampa Bay area has been placed under a flood watch until 8 p.m. Friday. Forecasters at the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office anticipate heavy rain throughout the day Thursday with possible tropical storm conditions Thursday night. Heavy rain is expected to continue in the region throughout the day Friday and into Saturday.

“Copious amounts of tropical moisture associated with this system will support widespread heavy rains and squalls over the region on Thursday, especially along coastal locations from Tampa north into the Nature Coast,” forecasters wrote in Thursday’s Hazardous Weather Outlook report. Flooding, storm surge and “an increased risk of tornadoes on Thursday” are possible, forecasters say.

The Tampa Bay area could see as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain in interior areas and up to 10 inches along the coast from St. Petersburg to Cedar Key. In light of the storm, several Tampa Bay area counties closed schools and government offices on Thursday, including Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

A tornado watch has also been issued for multiple counties along Florida's Gulf Coast. The watch is expected to remain in place until 11 p.m. Thursday in such Tampa Bay area counties as Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas.

Emergency managers throughout the Tampa Bay area were also warning local residents of the potential for heavy rain and flooding through Friday. While Hermine is expected to make landfall well north of Tampa Bay, a portion of Pasco County remained in the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas Thursday morning.

"Tropical conditions for Pasco County are forecast to begin this afternoon and continue through tonight," the county warned in a Thursday morning email. Pasco could see 4 to 6 inches of rainfall in coastal areas and 2 to 4 inches in its interior, the county said. Potential flooding and a 2-to-3-foot tidal surge are also concerns in areas such as Hudson, Jasmine Estates and Elfers.

Gov. Rick Scott also issued a statement warning about Hurricane Hermine's potential for damage:

“This storm has the potential to be life-threatening if residents and visitors don’t follow proper precautions to protect themselves and their loved ones. This storm will impact the majority of our state. Right now, we are concerned about storm surge in our coastal communities, wind, rain and tornadoes. We can expect storm surges beginning this afternoon along the Nature Coast and the Big Bend, wind speeds up to 75 mph, rainfall of up to 15 inches in some areas and tornadoes impacting Central and North Florida."

Hurricane Hermine's initial development occurred during the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season’s traditional peak. The season peaks each year between mid-August and mid-October. The period is described as the “season within the season” by forecasters. This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the Category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (Category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

As hurricane season’s peak continues, emergency management officials urge residents in coastal areas to be prepared.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation in the Tampa Bay area, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Images courtesy of the National Hurricane Center