Investment Strategies: From Wall Street to Main Street Hingham MA

By Craig Hartnett of Hingham MA

It’s the late stages of one of the longest bull markets in U.S. history. This year's volatility comes as investors wonder when and how the bull market will end.

The stock market has dealt with trade disputes with China and tariffs in general that has raised costs for consumers and created greater recession risks.

The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates four times this year.

Foreign developed and especially emerging markets are weak.

When the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the 2-year yield, it's a good signal that a recession will follow. The U.S. interest rate curve is not inverted yet, but is moving in that direction. The spread was 100 basis points a year ago and now is around 30 basis points.

The market is now viewing what was positive economic data as negative for the stock market. Consider the nonfarm payrolls. Jobs added came in at 250,000, about 30% more than expected. However, the focus was wage gains and fears that this will create inflation pressures which led to a stock market decline.

The end of the bull market is drawing closer and Investors in the stock market should embrace a more conservative stance especially during a correction recovery after the mid-term elections.

This is meant to provide perspectives on the stock market outlook and is not a recommendation from Craig Hartnett to investors in Hingham MA and the South Shore community.