Vikings Territory: What To Expect From Justin Jefferson In Year Two

Press release from Vikings Territory:

July 8, 2021

The Minnesota Vikings tend to play a gridiron version of Russian Roulette with the WR3 position, so the outlook for Justin Jefferson’s sophomore season is of the utmost importance. If something happens to him injury-wise or his running mate, Adam Thielen, Minnesota’s offense will endure a gut-punch because the drop-off to WR3 shifts from a talent perspective. In other NFL offenses, the WR3 often receives the nod when injuries surface to fill WR2 shoes – and glints. It feels like a matter of survival on the WR2-into-WR3 slope if Jefferson or Thielen is lost.

The rookie receiving yards record was shattered by Jefferson in 2020, totaling 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. En route to that distinction, Jefferson plowed past Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, and Anquan Boldin.

Rookie = 91 Rec / 1,305 Rec Yds / 12 TDs
Sophomore = 96 Rec / 1,450 Rec Yds / 13 TDs
11% Yds INCREASE / 8% TD INCREASE

On a not-very-good team, Beckham and the Giants finished 6-10 in his second act. Beckham gathered 28 more targets that year from Eli Manning compared to his rookie season. And he made the most of those targets.

But as an example for sophomore improvement, Beckham improved the most of these three men – a tendency Jefferson seeks to replicate.

Moss morphed into a more prototypical WR1 in 1999. His rookie season was that of acrobatic legend, breaking [and keeping 23 years later] the rookie record for touchdowns scored by a pass-catcher. With Randall Cunnigham and Jeff Geroge at the helm, Moss nestled into his fateful role of superstar wide receiver. Not only was he heaved deep balls, Moss began snagging “normal” catches like his pal, Cris Carter.

Rookie = 101 Rec / 1,377 Rec Yds / 8 TDs
Sophomore = 56 Rec / 623 Rec Yds / 1 TD
55% Yds DECREASE / 88% TD DECREASE

Boldin’s large dip in 2004 was caused by injury. He missed six full games, shedding his targets from 165 in 2003 to 104 in 2004. His production was destined to plummet with a reduced target load. Interestingly, Boldin’s sophomore year in 2004 was head coached by Dennis Green, who spent 10 years as the skipper of the Vikings.

If Boldin’s injury is subtracted from the equation, instead acknowledging his 2004 season by per-game totals, this is approximately what Jefferson has in store based on history:

This press release was produced by Vikings Territory. The views expressed here are the author’s own.