How Bad Will This Winter Be In NJ? See Weather Channel's Forecast

NEW JERSEY — As the nights become crisper, it can make you wonder just what the winter of 2020-21 could bring to New Jersey. The newest long-range forecast, covering December through February, brings cause for holiday cheer.

Mild temperatures could prevail this season across much of the country, especially in the East, according to an updated outlook released by The Weather Channel. "Above-average temperatures are expected in most locations from the southern and eastern states to the West Coast," the company predicted. "Areas from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Northeast could have temperatures that are much above average."

The call for a mild winter is a stronger prediction than last month's early winter weather forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That agency outlook for New Jersey called for slightly warmer winter temperatures.

"From a historical perspective, the increasingly strong La Niña event would force an exceedingly warm winter across [the] southern/eastern US, especially late winter and early spring, with colder air across western Canada and parts of the northwestern and north-central U.S.," said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.

Winter begins Dec. 21.

This November has been mild in many parts of the U.S. so far. Warm La Niña Novembers like this year tend to be followed by similarly mild conditions in winter, according to Crawford.

In The Weather Channel's month-by-month forecast, December is expected to bring above average highs, January could see much-above average highs, and February predicted to see most above average temperatures.

So, what could La Niña mean for snowfall this winter in the mid-Atlantic? Generally that leads to increased snowfall over the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as in the upper Midwest Great Lakes region, and less snow in the Central and Southern Plains, Southwest and mid-Atlantic, according to Dr. Stephen Baxter, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Both forecasts cite an ongoing La Niña weather pattern to bring a warmer than normal winter for our state. NOAA's forecast includes modest probabilities for warmer temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.

New Jersey's winter temperatures are in an average range of 16 to 43 degrees, and the NOAA forecast says there's a 50 to 60 percent chance of the temperatures being at the warmer end of that range for the 2020-2021 winter months.

That would follow a 2019-2020 winter where December through March recorded temperatures as much as 7 degrees above average, according to the New Jersey state climatologist's office.

Precipitation should be near average, according to the forecast, but NOAA did not make predictions on the amount of snowfall. If temperatures are mild, chances are most of New Jersey's precipitation will be rain. That would follow a 2019-2020 winter that the state climatologists at Rutgers labeled a dud for snowfall. The average snowfall last winter was 4.7 inches across the state, nearly 20 inches below normal for snowfall.

With reporting by Patch's Deb Belt