New Long-Range New Jersey Forecast For February Released

NEW JERSEY — It looks we may not be ready to put the snow shovels away just yet, forecasters say.

A winter that has been largely lackluster is expected to get colder in February, and snow is also possible during the last half of the month, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has released a 30-day forecast that says temperatures will be below normal in North Jersey during the month – particularly during the Feb. 15-29 time period, when Arctic air is expected to have a presence.

Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center's map shows the blue area for lower temperatures stretching across North and Central Jersey:

Meteorologist Lee Robertson said the Arctic air and colder temperatures will increase the chances that snow could happen, particularly in North Jersey.

Accuweather agrees, saying the region will likely be impacted by the polar vortex, a pool of bitter air that often sits over the North Pole during winter, then weakens or becomes elongated. The frigid air that is normally locked up above the Arctic Circle can eventually break loose and move southward during the latter part of winter, according to AccuWeather.

"We are anticipating that a strong push of Arctic air will take place into the U.S. during the second and third week of February in response to a displacement or weakening of the polar vortex during the first week of February," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

The specific forecast for precipitation is more uncertain, however. Robertson says the Climate Prediction Center basically couldn't make up its mind as to whether New Jersey will have more, less or an average amount.

What About that Weekend Snow Chance?

All signs point to the low pressure system staying offshore and New Jersey may not even see a raindrop or snowflake this weekend.

The best chance for any precipitation would be coastal locations, though it is possible that the entire region remains dry, according to the National Weather Service.

With the lack of cold air in place, it is likely that any precipitation that does fall will be primarily rain. Any snow that does fall will melt: Little, if any accumulation is expected with surface temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Probably the most snow could arrive on Sunday morning:

Another system may approach next week, but models disagree as to the exact timing and placement of the system. Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the week, according to the NWS.

Here is your extended forecast via the National Weather Service:

• Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 42. Light and variable wind.
• Friday night: A slight chance of rain after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
• Saturday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a slight chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
• Saturday night: A slight chance of rain before 10 p.m., then a slight chance of rain, snow, and sleet between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m., then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
• Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
• Sunday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
• Monday: Sunny, with a high near 55.
• Monday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
• Tuesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Tuesday night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
• Wednesday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Wednesday night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Thursday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.